FXテクニカル分析＆業者比較Blog

FOMC声明 日本時間 2015/07/30 （木） 03:00ごろ発表

※前回のFOMC声明はこちら

Press Release

Release Date: July 29, 2015

For immediate release

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June indicates that economic activity has been expanding moderately in recent months. Growth in household spending has been moderate and the housing sector has shown additional improvement; however, business fixed investment and net exports stayed soft. The labor market continued to improve, with solid job gains and declining unemployment. On balance, a range of labor market indicators suggests that underutilization of labor resources has diminished since early this year. Inflation continued to run below the Committee's longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices and decreasing prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey‑based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, with labor market indicators continuing to move toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee continues to see the risks to the outlook for economic activity and the labor market as nearly balanced. Inflation is anticipated to remain near its recent low level in the near term, but the Committee expects inflation to rise gradually toward 2 percent over the medium term as the labor market improves further and the transitory effects of earlier declines in energy and import prices dissipate. The Committee continues to monitor inflation developments closely.

To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate remains appropriate. In determining how long to maintain this target range, the Committee will assess progress--both realized and expected--toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee anticipates that it will be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate when it has seen some further improvement in the labor market and is reasonably confident that inflation will move back to its 2 percent objective over the medium term.

The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. This policy, by keeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.

When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Charles L. Evans; Stanley Fischer; Jeffrey M. Lacker; Dennis P. Lockhart; Jerome H. Powell; Daniel K. Tarullo; and John C. Williams.（反対無し）

FRB: Press Release--Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement--July 29, 2015
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20150729a.htm

今回はイエレン会見無し

今回のFOMCでも、金利自体はゼロ金利据え置きとなりました。

問題は、いつゼロ金利解除するのか、利上げに踏み切るのか、です。

この点、FOMC声明を読むと、

エネルギー価格の下落にもかかわらず、

目線はあくまでも利上げ方向にあるようです。

経済ボロボロで大規模な量的緩和に踏み切った欧州とは対照的に、

米経済は底堅く回復基調にあるようです。

以前のようなイケイケムードからは若干後退したようにも思えますが、

経済ボロボロで、貨幣をジャブジャブ刷って刷って刷りまくりの欧州、日本と比較すると、

あくまでも米国一人勝ちの構図は変わっていません。

ファンダメンタル分析的に考えれば、

FOMC声明で乱高下するも、

じわりとドル高になる

と考えるのが自然です。

少なくとも、ドル安になる材料ではありません。

これを受けてマーケットはどのように反応したのでしょうか。

↓のチャートを見る前に１分間想像してみてください。

・NYダウ の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ドル円 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ユーロドル の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ユーロ円 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ポンドドル の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ポンド円 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・原油 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・金 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

FOMC声明 日本時間 2015/6/18（木） 03:00ごろ発表

※前回のFOMC声明はこちら

Press Release

Release Date: June 17, 2015

For immediate release

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in April suggests that economic activity has been expanding moderately after having changed little during the first quarter. The pace of job gains picked up while the unemployment rate remained steady. On balance, a range of labor market indicators suggests that underutilization of labor resources diminished somewhat. Growth in household spending has been moderate and the housing sector has shown some improvement; however, business fixed investment and net exports stayed soft. Inflation continued to run below the Committee's longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices and decreasing prices of non-energy imports; energy prices appear to have stabilized. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, with labor market indicators continuing to move toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee continues to see the risks to the outlook for economic activity and the labor market as nearly balanced. Inflation is anticipated to remain near its recent low level in the near term, but the Committee expects inflation to rise gradually toward 2 percent over the medium term as the labor market improves further and the transitory effects of earlier declines in energy and import prices dissipate. The Committee continues to monitor inflation developments closely.

To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate remains appropriate. In determining how long to maintain this target range, the Committee will assess progress--both realized and expected--toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee anticipates that it will be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate when it has seen further improvement in the labor market and is reasonably confident that inflation will move back to its 2 percent objective over the medium term.

The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. This policy, by keeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.

When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Charles L. Evans; Stanley Fischer; Jeffrey M. Lacker; Dennis P. Lockhart; Jerome H. Powell; Daniel K. Tarullo; and John C. Williams.（反対者無し）

FRB: Press Release--Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement--June 17, 2015
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20150617a.htm

その後、日本時間3:30ごろからイエレン会見

「雇用の伸びは加速した。インフレの下振れ圧力は幾分後退。」
「利上げの時期は会合ごとに決定する。」
「初回利上げの重要性を過剰に述べるべきではない。」
「労働市場には循環的な弱さが幾分残る。」
「ＦＯＭＣはインフレは今年かなり低いと予想。」
「経済情勢はまだ利上げを正当化しない。」
「進展を示すもっと決定的な証拠を待っている。」
「ドルは概ね安定。」
「年内の利上げを正当化する指標が出てくる公算大きい。」
「利上げ時期が9月、12月、来年3月でも構わない。全体の道筋が重要。」
「ギリシャ合意なければ、ユーロ崩壊の潜在的な可能性に。ギリシャ合意に至らなければ世界金融市場に影響及ぶ可能性。」
「この1年のドル上昇は著しい。ドルは純輸出にマイナスの影響をもたらした。ドル高は経済見通しに影響する一要素。」
「ドル高でも年内利上げは正当化される。」

今回のFOMCでも、金利自体はゼロ金利据え置きとなりました。

問題は、いつゼロ金利解除するのか、利上げに踏み切るのか、です。

この点、FOMC声明を読むと、

目線はあくまでも利上げ方向にあるようです。

経済ボロボロで大規模な量的緩和に踏み切った欧州とは対照的に、

米経済は底堅く回復基調にあるようです。

また、その後のイエレン会見では、

（年内）利上げ目線の強気発言と、

市場の利上げ期待を牽制する慎重姿勢が入り交じっており、

好悪いずれの材料も織り混ざった内容となりました。

以前のようなイケイケムードからは若干後退したようにも思えますが、

経済ボロボロの欧州、日本と比較すると、

あくまでも米国一人勝ちの構図は変わっていません。

ファンダメンタル分析的に考えれば、

FOMC声明で乱高下、

その後イエレン会見でも再度乱高下、

結局元の水準に戻る、

と考えるのが自然です。

これを受けてマーケットはどのように反応したのでしょうか。

↓のチャートを見る前に１分間想像してみてください。

・NYダウ の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ドル円 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ユーロドル の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ユーロ円 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ポンドドル の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ポンド円 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・原油 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・金 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

FOMC声明 日本時間 2015/4/30（木） 03:00ごろ発表

※前回のFOMC声明はこちら

Press Release

Release Date: April 29, 2015

For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March suggests that economic growth slowed during the winter months, in part reflecting transitory factors. The pace of job gains moderated, and the unemployment rate remained steady. A range of labor market indicators suggests that underutilization of labor resources was little changed. Growth in household spending declined; households' real incomes rose strongly, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices, and consumer sentiment remains high. Business fixed investment softened, the recovery in the housing sector remained slow, and exports declined. Inflation continued to run below the Committee's longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices and decreasing prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. Although growth in output and employment slowed during the first quarter, the Committee continues to expect that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, with labor market indicators continuing to move toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee continues to see the risks to the outlook for economic activity and the labor market as nearly balanced. Inflation is anticipated to remain near its recent low level in the near term, but the Committee expects inflation to rise gradually toward 2 percent over the medium term as the labor market improves further and the transitory effects of declines in energy and import prices dissipate. The Committee continues to monitor inflation developments closely.

To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate remains appropriate. In determining how long to maintain this target range, the Committee will assess progress--both realized and expected--toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee anticipates that it will be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate when it has seen further improvement in the labor market and is reasonably confident that inflation will move back to its 2 percent objective over the medium term.

The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. This policy, by keeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.

When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Charles L. Evans; Stanley Fischer; Jeffrey M. Lacker; Dennis P. Lockhart; Jerome H. Powell; Daniel K. Tarullo; and John C. Williams.（反対なし）

FRB: Press Release--Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement--April 29, 2015
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20150429a.htm

今回のFOMCでも、金利自体はゼロ金利据え置きとなりました。

問題は、いつゼロ金利解除するのか、利上げに踏み切るのか、です。

この点、FOMC声明を読むと、

米経済成長は冬の期間に減速したものの、

基本的には米景況感は底堅く推移しているとFRBは考えているようで、

目線はあくまでも利上げ方向にあるようです。

経済ボロボロで大規模な量的緩和に踏み切った欧州とは対照的に、

米経済は底堅く回復基調にあるようです。

以前のようなイケイケムードからは若干後退したようにも思えますが、

経済ボロボロの欧州、日本と比較すると、

あくまでも米国一人勝ちの構図は変わっていません。

ファンダメンタル分析的に考えれば、

FOMC声明で、

利上げ期待の後退と解釈できるため、株上げ、ドル若干下げ、

と考えるのが自然です。

これを受けてマーケットはどのように反応したのでしょうか。

↓のチャートを見る前に１分間想像してみてください。

・NYダウ の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ドル円 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ユーロドル の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ユーロ円 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ポンドドル の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ポンド円 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・原油 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・金 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

FOMC声明 日本時間 2015/3/19 （木） 03:00ごろ発表

※前回のFOMC声明はこちら

Press Release

Release Date: March 18, 2015

For immediate release

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January suggests that economic growth has moderated somewhat. Labor market conditions have improved further, with strong job gains and a lower unemployment rate. A range of labor market indicators suggests that underutilization of labor resources continues to diminish. Household spending is rising moderately; declines in energy prices have boosted household purchasing power. Business fixed investment is advancing, while the recovery in the housing sector remains slow and export growth has weakened. Inflation has declined further below the Committee's longer-run objective,（インフレは委員会の長期目標を下回っている） largely reflecting declines in energy prices.（エネルギー価格の下落が大きな要因である） Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, with labor market indicators continuing to move toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee continues to see the risks to the outlook for economic activity and the labor market as nearly balanced. Inflation is anticipated to remain near its recent low level in the near term, but the Committee expects inflation to rise gradually toward 2 percent over the medium term as the labor market improves further and the transitory effects of energy price declines and other factors dissipate. The Committee continues to monitor inflation developments closely.

To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate remains appropriate. （金利据え置き）In determining how long to maintain this target range, the Committee will assess progress--both realized and expected--toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. Consistent with its previous statement, the Committee judges that an increase in the target range for the federal funds rate remains unlikely at the April FOMC meeting.（4月のFOMCでの利上げは、依然として不確定である。） The Committee anticipates that it will be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate when it has seen further improvement in the labor market and is reasonably confident that inflation will move back to its 2 percent objective over the medium term. This change in the forward guidance does not indicate that the Committee has decided on the timing of the initial increase in the target range.

The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. This policy, by keeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.

When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Charles L. Evans; Stanley Fischer; Jeffrey M. Lacker; Dennis P. Lockhart; Jerome H. Powell; Daniel K. Tarullo; and John C. Williams.(反対者無し)

FRB: Press Release--Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement--March 18, 2015

日本時間3:30ごろから イエレン会見

「雇用の拡大改善を今後も注視」
「輸出の伸びは弱くなったように見受けられる」
「ドル高は低インフレの長期化を意味する」
「FOMCは今年のインフレを極めて低く見ている。」
「4月以降のどの会合でも利上げを実行しうる。」
「6月の会合を否定しない。」
「新規のガイダンスは6月の利上げの必要性を意味していない。」
「強いドルは輸出の伸び減退の理由のひとつであろう。」
「強いドルは輸入価格を押し下げた」
「強いドルはインフレを押し下げる」
「第1四半期の成長は前期比で幾分下がったと見られる。」
「ひとつの物事によって金利を引き上げるということは無い」
「忍耐強くの文言削除は、4月の会合以降の利上げを否定しない」
「雇用の創出は力強い、予想以上の改善、ただ 一段と改善する余地」
「雇用の拡大状況を今後も注視」
「今年の成長率見通しは若干引き下げられた」
「一方、ドル高は米経済に力強さを一部反映」
「ドル高は輸入物価を抑制し、一時的にインフレ率を押し下げている」
「海外動向を注視」
「エネルギー価格の低下やドル高によりインフレはきわめて低い水準にとどまると予想している」
「中期的には2%に向けて徐々に上向いていくと見込んでいる」
「賃金の伸びを注視している」
「賃金の伸びの加速が利上げの条件とは言わない、ただ、インフレ上昇のきっかけになる。」

今回のFOMCでも、金利自体はゼロ金利据え置きとなりました。

問題は、いつゼロ金利解除するのか、利上げに踏み切るのか、です。

この点、FOMC声明を読むと、

FRBは、基本的には米景況感は底堅く推移していると考えているようで、

目線はあくまでも利上げ方向にあるようです。

経済ボロボロで大規模な量的緩和に踏み切った欧州とは対照的に、

米経済は底堅く回復基調にあるようです。

ただ、「インフレは委員会の長期目標を下回っている」と明記されており、

その理由として、エネルギー価格の下落が大きな要因であると書かれています。

また、その後のイエレン会見では、ドル高もインフレ下振れの原因であると発言しました。

イエレン会見で、ドル相場について言及されるのは非常に珍しいです。

いずれにせよ、以前のようなイケイケムードからは若干後退したようにも思えます。

ファンダメンタル分析的に考えれば、

FOMC声明で、

利上げ期待の後退と解釈できるため、株上げ、ドル若干下げ、

イエレン会見で、

なんか景気減速懸念が漂ってきたということで、株下げ、ドル下げ、

と考えるのが自然です。

これを受けてマーケットはどのように反応したのでしょうか。

↓のチャートを見る前に１分間想像してみてください。

・NYダウ の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ドル円 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ユーロドル の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ユーロ円 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ポンドドル の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ポンド円 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・原油 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・金 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

FOMC声明 日本時間 2015/1/29 （木） 04:00ごろ発表

※前回のFOMC声明はこちら

Press Release

Release Date: January 28, 2015

For immediate release

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December suggests that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace.　 Labor market conditions have improved further, with strong job gains and a lower unemployment rate.　 On balance, a range of labor market indicators suggests that underutilization of labor resources continues to diminish.　 Household spending is rising moderately; recent declines in energy prices have boosted household purchasing power.　 Business fixed investment is advancing, while the recovery in the housing sector remains slow.　 Inflation has declined further below the Committee’s longer-run objective, largely reflecting declines in energy prices.　 Market-based measures of inflation compensation have declined substantially in recent months; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability.　 The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, with labor market indicators continuing to move toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate.　 The Committee continues to see the risks to the outlook for economic activity and the labor market as nearly balanced.　 Inflation is anticipated to decline further in the near term, but the Committee expects inflation to rise gradually toward 2 percent over the medium term as the labor market improves further and the transitory effects of lower energy prices and other factors dissipate.　 The Committee continues to monitor inflation developments closely.

To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate remains appropriate.(金利据え置き)　 In determining how long to maintain this target range, the Committee will assess progress--both realized and expected--toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation.　 This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.　 Based on its current assessment, the Committee judges that it can be patient in beginning to normalize the stance of monetary policy.　 However, if incoming information indicates faster progress toward the Committee’s employment and inflation objectives than the Committee now expects, then increases in the target range for the federal funds rate are likely to occur sooner than currently anticipated.　 Conversely, if progress proves slower than expected, then increases in the target range are likely to occur later than currently anticipated.

The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction.　 This policy, by keeping the Committee’s holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.

When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent.　 The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Charles L. Evans; Stanley Fischer; Jeffrey M. Lacker; Dennis P. Lockhart; Jerome H. Powell; Daniel K. Tarullo; and John C. Williams.（反対無し）

FRB: Press Release--Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement--December 17, 2014

今回はイエレン会見無し

今回のFOMCでも、金利自体はゼロ金利据え置きとなりました。

問題は、いつゼロ金利解除するのか、利上げに踏み切るのか、です。

この点、FOMC声明を読むと、

FRBは、基本的には米景況感は底堅く推移していると考えているようで、

目線はあくまでも利上げ方向にあるようです。

経済ボロボロで大規模な量的緩和に踏み切った欧州とは対照的に、

米経済は底堅く回復基調にあるようです。

ただ、「原油安で目先のインフレ期待は下振れした」と明記しており、

前回のイケイケムードからは若干後退したようにも読めます。

ファンダメンタル分析的に考えれば、

・特にサプライズもなく、材料織り込み済みで、さほど動かない

と考えるのが自然です。

これを受けてマーケットはどのように反応したのでしょうか。

↓のチャートを見る前に１分間想像してみてください。

・NYダウ の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ドル円 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ユーロドル の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ユーロ円 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ポンドドル の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ポンド円 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・原油 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・金 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

FOMC声明 日本時間 2014/12/18 （木） 04:00ごろ発表

※前回のFOMC声明はこちら

Press Release

Release Date: December 17, 2014

For immediate release

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in October suggests that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace. Labor market conditions improved further, with solid job gains and a lower unemployment rate. On balance, a range of labor market indicators suggests that underutilization of labor resources continues to diminish. Household spending is rising moderately and business fixed investment is advancing, while the recovery in the housing sector remains slow. Inflation has continued to run below the Committee's longer-run objective, partly reflecting declines in energy prices. Market-based measures of inflation compensation have declined somewhat further; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, with labor market indicators moving toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee sees the risks to the outlook for economic activity and the labor market as nearly balanced. The Committee expects inflation to rise gradually toward 2 percent as the labor market improves further and the transitory effects of lower energy prices and other factors dissipate. The Committee continues to monitor inflation developments closely.

To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate remains appropriate. (金利据え置き) In determining how long to maintain this target range, the Committee will assess progress--both realized and expected--toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. Based on its current assessment, the Committee judges that it can be patient in beginning to normalize the stance of monetary policy. （it likely will be appropriate to maintain the 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate for a considerable time から文言変更） The Committee sees this guidance as consistent with its previous statement that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate for a considerable time following the end of its asset purchase program in October, especially if projected inflation continues to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and provided that longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored. However, if incoming information indicates faster progress toward the Committee's employment and inflation objectives than the Committee now expects, then increases in the target range for the federal funds rate are likely to occur sooner than currently anticipated. Conversely, if progress proves slower than expected, then increases in the target range are likely to occur later than currently anticipated.

The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. This policy, by keeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.

When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Stanley Fischer; Loretta J. Mester; Jerome H. Powell; and Daniel K. Tarullo.

Voting against the action were Richard W. Fisher, who believed that, while the Committee should be patient in beginning to normalize monetary policy, improvement in the U.S. economic performance since October has moved forward, further than the majority of the Committee envisions, the date when it will likely be appropriate to increase the federal funds rate; Narayana Kocherlakota, who believed that the Committee's decision, in the context of ongoing low inflation and falling market-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations, created undue downside risk to the credibility of the 2 percent inflation target; and Charles I. Plosser, who believed that the statement should not stress the importance of the passage of time as a key element of its forward guidance and, given the improvement in economic conditions, should not emphasize the consistency of the current forward guidance with previous statements. （反対三名。利上げに慎重。）

FRB: Press Release--Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement--December 17, 2014

その後、日本時間４：３０ごろからイエレン会見

「フォワードガイダンスの修正は意向の変化意味せず。経済の進展による。」
「雇用の伸びはこれまで力強い。」
「原油価格の下落は短期的にインフレを押し下げる。現時点では低下は一時的と判断。市場ベースのインフレ期待の低下に注意払う。」
「少なくとも今後数回のＦＯＭＣ会合では正常化開始する公算小さい。」
「今後数回とは2回を意味。」
「利上げが適切となる経済状況を注視。」
「参加者のほとんど、2015年利上げを想定。」
「2015年半ばの利上げ開始は指標次第。」
「一部は2015年半ばの利上げ開始予想。ただ、様々見方がある。」
「原油下落は差し引きでポジティブ。」
「世界の動向を非常に注視。」

前回のFOMCではQE3終了が宣言され、ドルのジャブジャブ供給は終わりました。

今回のFOMCでは、金利自体はゼロ金利据え置きとなりましたが、

問題は、いつゼロ金利解除するのか、利上げに踏み切るのか、です。

この点、FOMC声明を読むと、

もう利上げのタイミングを伺う準備段階に入っているのが分かる一方で、

利上げに極めて慎重なメンバーが３名いるなど、

混沌とした状況にあるようです。

その後のイエレン会見では、イエレン自身はかなり強気であり、前向きな姿勢がうかがえました。

本当に利上げはもうすぐ、という印象です。

完全に目線は利上げ方向です。

出口に向かってラストスパート！という感になってきました。

ファンダメンタル分析的に考えれば、

・いよいよ利上げ準備を臭わせる→ドル高、株安

と考えるのが自然です。

これを受けてマーケットはどのように反応したのでしょうか。

↓のチャートを見る前に１分間想像してみてください。

・NYダウ の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ドル円 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ユーロドル の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ユーロ円 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ポンドドル の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ポンド円 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・原油 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・金 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

FOMC声明 日本時間 2014/10/30 （木） 03:00ごろ発表

※前回のFOMC声明はこちら

Press Release

Release Date: October 29, 2014

For immediate release

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September suggests that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace. Labor market conditions improved somewhat further, with solid job gains and a lower unemployment rate. On balance, a range of labor market indicators suggests that underutilization of labor resources is gradually diminishing. Household spending is rising moderately and business fixed investment is advancing, while the recovery in the housing sector remains slow. Inflation has continued to run below the Committee's longer-run objective. Market-based measures of inflation compensation have declined somewhat; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, with labor market indicators and inflation moving toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee sees the risks to the outlook for economic activity and the labor market as nearly balanced. Although inflation in the near term will likely be held down by lower energy prices and other factors, the Committee judges that the likelihood of inflation running persistently below 2 percent has diminished somewhat since early this year.

The Committee judges that there has been a substantial improvement in the outlook for the labor market since the inception of its current asset purchase program. Moreover, the Committee continues to see sufficient underlying strength in the broader economy to support ongoing progress toward maximum employment in a context of price stability. Accordingly, the Committee decided to conclude its asset purchase program this month. The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. This policy, by keeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.

To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate remains appropriate. In determining how long to maintain this target range, the Committee will assess progress--both realized and expected--toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. The Committee anticipates, based on its current assessment, that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate for a considerable time following the end of its asset purchase program this month, especially if projected inflation continues to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and provided that longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored. However, if incoming information indicates faster progress toward the Committee's employment and inflation objectives than the Committee now expects, then increases in the target range for the federal funds rate are likely to occur sooner than currently anticipated. Conversely, if progress proves slower than expected, then increases in the target range are likely to occur later than currently anticipated.

When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Stanley Fischer; Richard W. Fisher; Loretta J. Mester; Charles I. Plosser; Jerome H. Powell; and Daniel K. Tarullo. Voting against the action was Narayana Kocherlakota, who believed that, in light of continued sluggishness in the inflation outlook and the recent slide in market-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations, the Committee should commit to keeping the current target range for the federal funds rate at least until the one-to-two-year ahead inflation outlook has returned to 2 percent and should continue the asset purchase program at its current level.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20141029a.htm

前回のFOMCで予告されていましたが、

いよいよ、QE3終了！となりました。

昨年12月まで、毎月850億ドルの流動性供給（ドルをジャブジャブに刷りまくり）

→昨年12月のFOMCで750億ドルへ縮小、

→さらに1月のFOMCで650億ドルへ縮小

→さらに3月のFOMCで550億ドルへ縮小。

→さらに5月のFOMCで450億ドルへ縮小。

→さらに6月のFOMCで350億ドルへ縮小。

→さらに7月のFOMCで250億ドルへ縮小。

→さらに9月のFOMCで、150億ドルへ縮小。

→今回、ついに終了！！！

毎回100億ドル、約１兆円ずつの流動性供給低下です。

昨年12月までと比較すると、毎月9兆円の流動性供給を減らしたことになります。

ドルをジャブジャブにする（＝希薄化）のをやめた、ということで、

ファンダメンタル分析的にはドル高材料のはずです。

逆に、株式市場的には株安材料です。

金利については、金利自体は変更無し。

ゼロ金利解除の条件についても、前回とほぼ同じ内容です。

いよいよあとは、いつ利上げするかという点に焦点が移ってきました。

出口に向かってラストスパート！という感になってきました。

ファンダメンタル分析的に考えれば、

・QE3終了→ドル高、株安 （ただし、QE3終了については前回イエレンが予告していたので材料織り込み済みになるはず）

・いよいよ利上げ準備を臭わせる→ドル高、株安

と考えるのが自然です。

これを受けてマーケットはどのように反応したのでしょうか。

↓のチャートを見る前に１分間想像してみてください。

・NYダウ の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ドル円 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ユーロドル の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ユーロ円 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ポンドドル の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ポンド円 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・原油 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・金 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

FOMC声明 日本時間 2014/9/18 （木） 03:00ごろ発表

※前回のFOMC声明はこちら

Release Date: September 17, 2014

For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in July suggests that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace. On balance, labor market conditions improved somewhat further; however, the unemployment rate is little changed and a range of labor market indicators suggests that there remains significant underutilization of labor resources. Household spending appears to be rising moderately and business fixed investment is advancing, while the recovery in the housing sector remains slow. Fiscal policy is restraining economic growth, although the extent of restraint is diminishing. Inflation has been running below the Committee's longer-run objective. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, with labor market indicators and inflation moving toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee sees the risks to the outlook for economic activity and the labor market as nearly balanced and judges that the likelihood of inflation running persistently below 2 percent has diminished somewhat since early this year.

The Committee currently judges that there is sufficient underlying strength in the broader economy to support ongoing improvement in labor market conditions. In light of the cumulative progress toward maximum employment and the improvement in the outlook for labor market conditions since the inception of the current asset purchase program, the Committee decided to make a further measured reduction in the pace of its asset purchases. Beginning in October, the Committee will add to its holdings of agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $5 billion per month rather than $10 billion per month, and will add to its holdings of longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $10 billion per month rather than $15 billion per month. （量的緩和250億ドル→150億ドルへ縮小）The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. The Committee's sizable and still-increasing holdings of longer-term securities should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative, which in turn should promote a stronger economic recovery and help to ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with the Committee's dual mandate.

The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months and will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until the outlook for the labor market has improved substantially in a context of price stability. If incoming information broadly supports the Committee's expectation of ongoing improvement in labor market conditions and inflation moving back toward its longer-run objective, the Committee will end its current program of asset purchases at its next meeting. However, asset purchases are not on a preset course, and the Committee's decisions about their pace will remain contingent on the Committee's outlook for the labor market and inflation as well as its assessment of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases.

To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy remains appropriate. In determining how long to maintain the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess progress--both realized and expected--toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. The Committee continues to anticipate, based on its assessment of these factors, that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends, especially if projected inflation continues to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and provided that longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored.

When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Stanley Fischer; Narayana Kocherlakota; Loretta J. Mester; Jerome H. Powell; and Daniel K. Tarullo. Voting against the action were Richard W. Fisher and Charles I. Plosser. President Fisher believed that the continued strengthening of the real economy, improved outlook for labor utilization and for general price stability, and continued signs of financial market excess, will likely warrant an earlier reduction in monetary accommodation than is suggested by the Committee's stated forward guidance. President Plosser objected to the guidance indicating that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate for "a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends," because such language is time dependent and does not reflect the considerable economic progress that has been made toward the Committee's goals.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20140917a.htm

その後、日本時間3:30ごろから、イエレン議長会見開始

「出口戦略の公表は政策の変更を意味していない。」
「雇用は目標に向かって進展。ただ、まだ完全回復はしていない。」
「労働力の活用、極端に低い状態。」
「ＦＯＭＣはインフレは徐々に目標に向かって行くと見ている。」
「次回の会合で資産購入は終了へ。」（ドル→買い材料、株→売り材料）
「大半のＦＯＭＣ参加者はＦＦ金利が2017年末までに正常水準に近づくと想定。」
「今回の出口戦略計画の明示は新たな要素。」
「ＦＦ金利は金利政策伝達の主要手段に。単一水準でなく引き続きレンジとする。超過準備への付利はＦＦ金利誘導の主要手段に。」
「翌日物リバースレポは必要に応じた使用に限定。」
「「相当な期間」の文言は機械的なものではない。景気判断に関連。」
「賃金の非常に緩慢な上昇、労働市場の緩み反映。」
「市場期待とＦＲＢの見通しにかい離あるかは不明。」

前回のFOMCとの変更点は、QE3実施規模をさらに縮小。

昨年12月まで、毎月850億ドルの流動性供給（ドルをジャブジャブに刷りまくり）

→昨年12月のFOMCで750億ドルへ縮小、

→さらに1月のFOMCで650億ドルへ縮小

→さらに3月のFOMCで550億ドルへ縮小。

→さらに5月のFOMCで450億ドルへ縮小。

→さらに6月のFOMCで350億ドルへ縮小。

→さらに7月のFOMCで250億ドルへ縮小。

→さらに今回、150億ドルへ縮小。

毎回100億ドル、約１兆円ずつの流動性供給低下です。

昨年12月までと比較すると、毎月ベースで流動性供給は18%以下まで低下です。

額にすると、毎月7兆円の流動性供給を減らしたことになります。

ドルをジャブジャブにする（＝希薄化）ペースを緩める、ということで、

ファンダメンタル分析的にはドル高材料のはずです。

逆に、株式市場的には株安材料です。

金利については、金利自体は変更無し。

ゼロ金利解除の条件についても、前回とほぼ同じ内容です。

また、インフレについては、「インフレが2%を下回り続ける可能性は減った」とあり、

いよいよ出口に向かってラストスパート！という感になってきました。

ファンダメンタル分析的に考えれば、

・QE3縮小（しかも次回で終了）→ドル高、株安

・いよいよ利上げ準備を臭わせる→ドル高、株安

と考えるのが自然です。

これを受けてマーケットはどのように反応したのでしょうか。

↓のチャートを見る前に１分間想像してみてください。

・NYダウ の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ドル円 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ユーロドル の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ユーロ円 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ポンドドル の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ポンド円 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・原油 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・金 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

FOMC声明 日本時間 2014/7/31 （木） 03:00ごろ発表

※前回のFOMC声明はこちら

Press Release

Release Date: July 30, 2014

For immediate release

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June indicates that growth in economic activity rebounded in the second quarter. Labor market conditions improved, with the unemployment rate declining further. However, a range of labor market indicators suggests that there remains significant underutilization of labor resources. Household spending appears to be rising moderately and business fixed investment is advancing, while the recovery in the housing sector remains slow. Fiscal policy is restraining economic growth, although the extent of restraint is diminishing. Inflation has moved somewhat closer to the Committee's longer-run objective. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, with labor market indicators and inflation moving toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee sees the risks to the outlook for economic activity and the labor market as nearly balanced and judges that the likelihood of inflation running persistently below 2 percent has diminished somewhat.

The Committee currently judges that there is sufficient underlying strength in the broader economy to support ongoing improvement in labor market conditions. In light of the cumulative progress toward maximum employment and the improvement in the outlook for labor market conditions since the inception of the current asset purchase program, the Committee decided to make a further measured reduction in the pace of its asset purchases. Beginning in August, the Committee will add to its holdings of agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $10 billion per month rather than $15 billion per month, and will add to its holdings of longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $15 billion per month rather than $20 billion per month. (量的緩和 350億ドル→250億ドルへ縮小) The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. The Committee's sizable and still-increasing holdings of longer-term securities should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative, which in turn should promote a stronger economic recovery and help to ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with the Committee's dual mandate.

The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months and will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until the outlook for the labor market has improved substantially in a context of price stability. If incoming information broadly supports the Committee's expectation of ongoing improvement in labor market conditions and inflation moving back toward its longer-run objective, the Committee will likely reduce the pace of asset purchases in further measured steps at future meetings. However, asset purchases are not on a preset course, and the Committee's decisions about their pace will remain contingent on the Committee's outlook for the labor market and inflation as well as its assessment of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases.

To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy remains appropriate. In determining how long to maintain the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess progress--both realized and expected--toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. The Committee continues to anticipate, based on its assessment of these factors, that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends, especially if projected inflation continues to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and provided that longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored.

When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Stanley Fischer; Richard W. Fisher; Narayana Kocherlakota; Loretta J. Mester; Jerome H. Powell; and Daniel K. Tarullo. Voting against was Charles I. Plosser who objected to the guidance indicating that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate for "a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends," because such language is time dependent and does not reflect the considerable economic progress that has been made toward the Committee's goals.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20140730a.htm

前回のFOMCとの変更点は、QE3実施規模をさらに縮小。

昨年12月まで、毎月850億ドルの流動性供給（ドルをジャブジャブに刷りまくり）

→昨年12月のFOMCで750億ドルへ縮小、

→さらに１月のFOMCで650億ドルへ縮小

→さらに3月のFOMCで550億ドルへ縮小。

→さらに5月のFOMCで450億ドルへ縮小。

→さらに6月のFOMCで350億ドルへ縮小。

→さらに今回、250億ドルへ縮小。

毎回100億ドル、約１兆円ずつの流動性供給低下です。

昨年12月までと比較すると、毎月ベースで流動性供給は1/3以下まで低下です。

額にすると、毎月6兆円の流動性供給を減らしたことになります。

ドルをジャブジャブにする（＝希薄化）ペースを緩める、ということで、

ファンダメンタル分析的にはドル高材料のはずです。

逆に、株式市場的には株安材料です。

金利については、金利自体は変更無し。

ゼロ金利解除の条件についても、前回とほぼ同じ内容です。

ファンダメンタル分析的に考えれば、

・QE3縮小→ドル高、株安

・低金利堅持アピール→ドル安、株高

であり、

単純にどちらか一方通行になるような、単純な材料ではありません。

それでも、上か下かどちらかなのか、

ファンダメンタル分析的に考えると、

今回は、QE3の１００億ドル縮小が実行されたわけですから、

ドル高、株安になる可能性が高いように思えます。

（あくまでもファンダメンタル分析）

これを受けてマーケットはどのように反応したのでしょうか。

↓のチャートを見る前に１分間想像してみてください。

・NYダウ の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ドル円 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ユーロドル の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ユーロ円 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ポンドドル の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ポンド円 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・原油 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・金 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

日本時間2014年7月10日木曜日 3時公開

A meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee was held in the offices of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in Washington, D.C., on Tuesday, June 17, 2014, at 10:00 a.m. and continued on Wednesday, June 18, 2014, at 9:00 a.m.
PRESENT:

FOMC声明 日本時間 2014/6/19 （木） 03:00ごろ発表

※前回のFOMC声明はこちら

Press Release

Release Date: June 18, 2014

For immediate release

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in April indicates that growth in economic activity has rebounded in recent months. Labor market indicators generally showed further improvement. The unemployment rate, though lower, remains elevated. Household spending appears to be rising moderately and business fixed investment resumed its advance, while the recovery in the housing sector remained slow. Fiscal policy is restraining economic growth, although the extent of restraint is diminishing. Inflation has been running below the Committee's longer-run objective, but longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and labor market conditions will continue to improve gradually, moving toward those the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee sees the risks to the outlook for the economy and the labor market as nearly balanced. The Committee recognizes that inflation persistently below its 2 percent objective could pose risks to economic performance, and it is monitoring inflation developments carefully for evidence that inflation will move back toward its objective over the medium term.

The Committee currently judges that there is sufficient underlying strength in the broader economy to support ongoing improvement in labor market conditions. In light of the cumulative progress toward maximum employment and the improvement in the outlook for labor market conditions since the inception of the current asset purchase program, the Committee decided to make a further measured reduction in the pace of its asset purchases. Beginning in July, the Committee will add to its holdings of agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $15 billion per month rather than $20 billion per month, and will add to its holdings of longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $20 billion per month rather than $25 billion per month. (今回も100億ドルの縮小！) The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. The Committee's sizable and still-increasing holdings of longer-term securities should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative, which in turn should promote a stronger economic recovery and help to ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with the Committee's dual mandate.

The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months and will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until the outlook for the labor market has improved substantially in a context of price stability. If incoming information broadly supports the Committee's expectation of ongoing improvement in labor market conditions and inflation moving back toward its longer-run objective, the Committee will likely reduce the pace of asset purchases in further measured steps at future meetings. However, asset purchases are not on a preset course, and the Committee's decisions about their pace will remain contingent on the Committee's outlook for the labor market and inflation as well as its assessment of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases.

To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy remains appropriate. In determining how long to maintain the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess progress--both realized and expected--toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. The Committee continues to anticipate, based on its assessment of these factors, that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends, especially if projected inflation continues to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and provided that longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored.

When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Stanley Fischer; Richard W. Fisher; Narayana Kocherlakota; Loretta J. Mester; Charles I. Plosser; Jerome H. Powell; and Daniel K. Tarullo.
　

http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20140618a.htm
　　　

日本時間3：30ごろから イエレン議長会見

「今年のＧＤＰ下方修正は第1四半期の結果を受けたもの。」
「ＦＲＢの債券保有で市場金利への下押し圧力維持。」
「ＱＥ縮小は慎重なペースで継続の公算。緩和縮小継続は目標への進ちょく継続するとの見方反映。」
「経済下振れなら緩和策をより長期間維持する可能性。ＦＯＭＣは利上げの手段を所持。主要金利の動向は経済指標次第。」
「最近のＣＰＩは高めに推移。インフレ率は2％に回帰と予想。最近の兆候が示唆。」
「失業率予想の中心は前回より下がった。ただ、高止まりしている。」
「失業率低下の一部は労働市場の劣化後退を反映している訳ではない。」
「金利の行方ついて不確実であることは、市場は認識すべき。」
「労働参加率は下がっており、一部は循環要因の可能性。」
「金利見通しの予測分布図は意見の相違の幅を示す。」
「住宅市場の回復鈍化は信用度低い借り手による融資獲得の困難さが一因。」

前回のFOMCとの変更点は、QE3実施規模をさらに縮小。

昨年12月まで、毎月850億ドルの流動性供給（ドルをジャブジャブに刷りまくり）

→昨年12月のFOMCで750億ドルへ縮小、

→さらに１月のFOMCで650億ドルへ縮小

→さらに3月のFOMCで550億ドルへ縮小。

→さらに5月のFOMCで450億ドルへ縮小。

→さらに今回、350億ドルへ縮小。

毎回100億ドル、約１兆円ずつの流動性供給低下です。

昨年12月までと比較すると、毎月ベースで流動性供給は半分以下まで低下です。

額にすると、毎月5兆円の流動性供給を減らしたことになります。

ドルをジャブジャブにする（＝希薄化）ペースを緩める、ということで、

ファンダメンタル分析的にはドル高材料のはずです。

逆に、株式市場的には株安材料です。

金利については、金利自体は変更無し。

ゼロ金利解除の条件についても、前回とほぼ同じ内容です。

その後のイエレン会見では、

低金利堅持アピール、

インフレ率については明るい兆しの話が出ました。

前者はドル安材料、

後者はドル高材料で、

これまたどちらか一方通行の内容ではありません。

ファンダメンタル分析的に考えれば、

・QE3縮小→ドル高、株安

・低金利堅持アピール→ドル安、株高

であり、

単純にどちらか一方通行になるような、単純な材料ではありません。

それでも、上か下かどちらかなのか、

ファンダメンタル分析的に考えると、

今回は、QE3の１００億ドル縮小が実行されたわけですから、

ドル高、株安になる可能性が高いように思えます。

（あくまでもファンダメンタル分析）

これを受けてマーケットはどのように反応したのでしょうか。

↓のチャートを見る前に１分間想像してみてください。

・NYダウ の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ドル円 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ユーロドル の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ユーロ円 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ポンドドル の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ポンド円 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・原油 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・金 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

FOMC声明 日本時間 2014/5/1 （木） 03:00ごろ発表

※前回のFOMC声明はこちら

Press Release

Release Date: April 30, 2014

For immediate release

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March indicates that growth in economic activity has picked up recently, after having slowed sharply during the winter in part because of adverse weather conditions. Labor market indicators were mixed but on balance showed further improvement. The unemployment rate, however, remains elevated. Household spending appears to be rising more quickly. Business fixed investment edged down, while the recovery in the housing sector remained slow. Fiscal policy is restraining economic growth, although the extent of restraint is diminishing. Inflation has been running below the Committee's longer-run objective, but longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and labor market conditions will continue to improve gradually, moving toward those the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee sees the risks to the outlook for the economy and the labor market as nearly balanced. The Committee recognizes that inflation persistently below its 2 percent objective could pose risks to economic performance, and it is monitoring inflation developments carefully for evidence that inflation will move back toward its objective over the medium term.

The Committee currently judges that there is sufficient underlying strength in the broader economy to support ongoing improvement in labor market conditions. In light of the cumulative progress toward maximum employment and the improvement in the outlook for labor market conditions since the inception of the current asset purchase program, the Committee decided to make a further measured reduction in the pace of its asset purchases. Beginning in May, the Committee will add to its holdings of agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $20 billion per month rather than $25 billion per month, and will add to its holdings of longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $25 billion per month rather than $30 billion per month. （今回も100億ドル縮小。前回550億ドル→450億ドル）The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. The Committee's sizable and still-increasing holdings of longer-term securities should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative, which in turn should promote a stronger economic recovery and help to ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with the Committee's dual mandate.

The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months and will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until the outlook for the labor market has improved substantially in a context of price stability. If incoming information broadly supports the Committee's expectation of ongoing improvement in labor market conditions and inflation moving back toward its longer-run objective, the Committee will likely reduce the pace of asset purchases in further measured steps at future meetings. However, asset purchases are not on a preset course, and the Committee's decisions about their pace will remain contingent on the Committee's outlook for the labor market and inflation as well as its assessment of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases.

To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy remains appropriate. In determining how long to maintain the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess progress--both realized and expected--toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. The Committee continues to anticipate, based on its assessment of these factors, that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends, especially if projected inflation continues to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and provided that longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored.

When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Richard W. Fisher; Narayana Kocherlakota; Sandra Pianalto; Charles I. Plosser; Jerome H. Powell; Jeremy C. Stein; and Daniel K. Tarullo.
　

http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20140430a.htm
　　　

※今回はFRB議長会見無し

前回のFOMCとの変更点は、QE3実施規模をさらに縮小。

昨年12月まで、毎月850億ドルの流動性供給（ドルをジャブジャブに刷りまくり）

→昨年12月のFOMCで750億ドルへ縮小、

→さらに１月のFOMCで650億ドルへ縮小

→さらに3月のFOMCで550億ドルへ縮小。

→さらに今回、450億ドルへ縮小。

毎回100億ドル、約１兆円ずつの流動性供給低下です。

昨年12月までと比較すると、毎月ベースで流動性供給は約半分まで低下です。

額にすると、毎月4兆円の流動性供給を減らしたことになります。

思ったよりも早いペースで蛇口を絞っています。

イエレンは、今年の秋にQE3は終了すると言っているので、

おそらくこのペースで毎回100億ドルの縮小が続いていくのでしょう。

ドルをジャブジャブにする（＝希薄化）ペースを緩める、ということで、

ファンダメンタル的にはドル高材料です。

逆に、株式市場的には株安材料です。

金利については、金利自体は変更無し。

ゼロ金利解除の条件についても、前回とほぼ同じ内容です。

ファンダメンタル分析的に考えれば、

・QE3縮小→ドル高、株安

・低金利堅持アピール→ドル安、株高

であり、

単純にどちらか一方通行になるような、単純な材料ではありません。

それでも、上か下かどちらかなのか、

ファンダメンタル分析的に考えると、

今回は、QE3の１００億ドル縮小が実行された分、

ドル高、株安になる可能性が高いように思えます。

（あくまでもファンダメンタル分析）

これを受けてマーケットはどのように反応したのでしょうか。

↓のチャートを見る前に１分間想像してみてください。

・NYダウ の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ドル円 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ユーロドル の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ユーロ円 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ポンドドル の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ポンド円 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・原油 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・金 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

日本時間 2014/4/10 （木） 03:00ごろ発表

A meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee was held in the offices of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in Washington, D.C., on Tuesday, March 18, 2014, at 2:00 p.m. and continued on Wednesday, March 19, 2014, at 8:30 a.m.

FOMC声明 日本時間 2014/3/20 （木） 03:00ごろ発表

※前回のFOMC声明はこちら

Press Release

Release Date: March 19, 2014

For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January indicates that growth in economic activity slowed during the winter months, in part reflecting adverse weather conditions. Labor market indicators were mixed but on balance showed further improvement. The unemployment rate, however, remains elevated. Household spending and business fixed investment continued to advance, while the recovery in the housing sector remained slow. Fiscal policy is restraining economic growth, although the extent of restraint is diminishing. Inflation has been running below the Committee's longer-run objective, but longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and labor market conditions will continue to improve gradually, moving toward those the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee sees the risks to the outlook for the economy and the labor market as nearly balanced. The Committee recognizes that inflation persistently below its 2 percent objective could pose risks to economic performance, and it is monitoring inflation developments carefully for evidence that inflation will move back toward its objective over the medium term.

The Committee currently judges that there is sufficient underlying strength in the broader economy to support ongoing improvement in labor market conditions. In light of the cumulative progress toward maximum employment and the improvement in the outlook for labor market conditions since the inception of the current asset purchase program, the Committee decided to make a further measured reduction in the pace of its asset purchases. Beginning in April, the Committee will add to its holdings of agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $25 billion per month rather than $30 billion per month, and will add to its holdings of longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $30 billion per month rather than $35 billion per month. (今月も100億ドル縮小！！前回650億ドル→550億ドルに縮小)The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. The Committee's sizable and still-increasing holdings of longer-term securities should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative, which in turn should promote a stronger economic recovery and help to ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with the Committee's dual mandate.

The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months and will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until the outlook for the labor market has improved substantially in a context of price stability. If incoming information broadly supports the Committee's expectation of ongoing improvement in labor market conditions and inflation moving back toward its longer-run objective, the Committee will likely reduce the pace of asset purchases in further measured steps at future meetings. However, asset purchases are not on a preset course, and the Committee's decisions about their pace will remain contingent on the Committee's outlook for the labor market and inflation as well as its assessment of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases.

To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy remains appropriate. In determining how long to maintain the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess progress--both realized and expected--toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. （失業率6.5%の基準を撤廃） This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. The Committee continues to anticipate, based on its assessment of these factors, that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends, especially if projected inflation continues to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and provided that longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored.

When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run.

With the unemployment rate nearing 6-1/2 percent, the Committee has updated its forward guidance. The change in the Committee's guidance does not indicate any change in the Committee's policy intentions as set forth in its recent statements.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Richard W. Fisher; Sandra Pianalto; Charles I. Plosser; Jerome H. Powell; Jeremy C. Stein; and Daniel K. Tarullo.

Voting against the action was Narayana Kocherlakota, who supported the sixth paragraph, but believed the fifth paragraph weakens the credibility of the Committee's commitment to return inflation to the 2 percent target from below and fosters policy uncertainty that hinders economic activity.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20140319a.htm

3:30頃～ イエレン会見

「ガイダンス変更は政策意図の変更ではない。」
「最近の軟調な指標にかかわらず、継続的な進展ある見通し。」
「労働市場は改善が続いている。」
「金融環境はFOMCの目標に沿っている。」
「とりわけ天候により、経済の力強い判断が困難になった。」
「FOMCのインフレ予想は徐々に2%に向かっている。」
「FOMCの政策は2つの責務に沿っている。」
「量的緩和、事前に決められたコースはない。」
「量的緩和の今後は経済次第だとあらためて表明。」
「雇用・インフレの不足が拡大し期間が長引くほど、FF金利がゼロ%近辺に留まる期間が長くなる可能性。」
「非常に緩和的な政策、必要だと改めて表明。」
「多くの参加者、金融危機の残存する影響と金利見通しの潜在的な伸び鈍化を指摘。」
「インフレが目標を大幅に下回り失業率が高い中で、非常に緩和的な政策が必要。」
「ガイダンスは質的なものになる。」
「完全雇用の達成、近くない。」
「量的緩和の終了は今秋の可能性高いとあらためて表明。」
「労働市場指標を1つ選ぶ場合、失業率が最善の選択。」
「新たなガイダンス、質的情報などこれまでより一段の情報を提供すること目的。」
「インフレが下振れする深刻な懸念あれば、われわれは回避に向け行動すると確信。」
「正常金利への道は緩やかなものになる可能性も。」
「天候は第1四半期の経済を弱めた。」

前回のFOMCとの変更点は、QE3実施規模をさらに縮小。

昨年12月まで、毎月850億ドルの流動性供給（ドルをジャブジャブに刷りまくり）

→昨年12月のFOMCで750億ドルへ縮小、

→さらに１月のFOMCで650億ドルへ縮小

→さらに今回、550億ドルへ縮小。

毎月100億ドル、約１兆円の流動性供給低下です。

昨年12月に比べると、毎月ベースで約3兆円の流動性供給低下です。

思ったよりも早いペースで蛇口を絞っています。

イエレンは、今年の秋にQE3は終了すると言っているので、

おそらくこのペースで毎月100億ドルの縮小が続いていくのでしょう。

ドルをジャブジャブにする（＝希薄化）ペースを緩める、ということで、

ファンダメンタル的にはドル高材料です。

逆に、株式市場的には株安材料です。

金利については、金利自体は変更無し。

注目すべき点としては、失業率6.5％の基準が消去されていますが、

長期的な物価目標が2%に達しない場合、経済環境の情況によっては、

利上げしない、

というような内容の文が入っています。

当分ゼロ金利維持するから安心してね！金利は上げないよ！という株式市場（＆米国債市場）へのメッセージと思われます。

QE3縮小で株暴落＆景気減速懸念が出ることとのバランスを取った形です。

（通貨的にはドル安方向の材料）

ファンダメンタル分析的に考えれば、

・QE3縮小→ドル高、株安

・低金利堅持アピール→ドル安、株高

であり、

単純にどちらか一方通行になるような、単純な材料ではありません。

これを受けてマーケットはどのように反応したのでしょうか。

↓のチャートを見る前に１分間想像してみてください。

・NYダウ の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ドル円 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ユーロドル の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ユーロ円 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ポンドドル の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ポンド円 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・原油 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・金 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

発表：日本時間2014/2/20 4：00

FRB: Press Release--Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, January 28-29, 2014--February 19, 2014

January 28-29, 2014

FOMC Minutes
A meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee was held in the offices of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in Washington, D.C., on Tuesday, January 28, 2014, at 2:00 p.m. and continued on Wednesday, January 29, 2014, at 9:00 a.m.

PRESENT:

2/3に米FRBの新議長に就任したイエレン氏の、初の議会証言が、

日本時間2014/02/11　 24:00から行われました。

原稿

「労働市場の回復は完全から遠い。」
「慎重に緩和縮小を継続する可能性が高い。」
「失業率が6.5%を下回っても相当期間は実質ゼロ金利は維持。」(株には好材料、ドルには悪材料)
「失業率は完全に雇用の見通しを与えるわけではない。」
「量的緩和が終了しても超緩和政策は維持される。」（ゼロ金利は継続）
「2014年と15年の緩やかな経済成長と雇用回復を予測。」

FOMC声明 日本時間 2014/1/30 （木） 04:00ごろ発表

※前回のFOMC声明はこちら

Press Release

Release Date: January 29, 2014

For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December indicates that growth in economic activity picked up in recent quarters. Labor market indicators were mixed but on balance showed further improvement. The unemployment rate declined but remains elevated. Household spending and business fixed investment advanced more quickly in recent months, while the recovery in the housing sector slowed somewhat. Fiscal policy is restraining economic growth, although the extent of restraint is diminishing. Inflation has been running below the Committee's longer-run objective, but longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and the unemployment rate will gradually decline toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee sees the risks to the outlook for the economy and the labor market as having become more nearly balanced. The Committee recognizes that inflation persistently below its 2 percent objective could pose risks to economic performance, and it is monitoring inflation developments carefully for evidence that inflation will move back toward its objective over the medium term.

Taking into account the extent of federal fiscal retrenchment since the inception of its current asset purchase program, the Committee continues to see the improvement in economic activity and labor market conditions over that period as consistent with growing underlying strength in the broader economy. In light of the cumulative progress toward maximum employment and the improvement in the outlook for labor market conditions, the Committee decided to make a further measured reduction in the pace of its asset purchases. Beginning in February, the Committee will add to its holdings of agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $30 billion per month rather than $35 billion per month, and will add to its holdings of longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $35 billion per month rather than $40 billion per month. (QE3実施規模、さらに縮小！！！前回750億ドル→650億ドルへ縮小) The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. The Committee's sizable and still-increasing holdings of longer-term securities should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative, which in turn should promote a stronger economic recovery and help to ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with the Committee's dual mandate.

The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months and will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other　 policy tools as appropriate, until the outlook for the labor market has improved substantially in a context of price stability. If incoming information broadly supports the Committee's expectation of ongoing improvement in labor market conditions and inflation moving back toward its longer-run objective, the Committee will likely reduce the pace of asset purchases in further measured steps at future meetings. However, asset purchases are not on a preset course, and the Committee's decisions about their pace will remain contingent on the Committee's outlook for the labor market and inflation as well as its assessment of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases.

To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends and the economic recovery strengthens. The Committee also reaffirmed its expectation that the current exceptionally low target range for the federal funds rate of 0 to 1/4 percent will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent, inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be no more than a half percentage point above the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored. In determining how long to maintain a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy, the Committee will also consider other information, including additional measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. The Committee continues to anticipate, based on its assessment of these factors, that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate well past the time that the unemployment rate declines below 6-1/2 percent, especially if projected inflation continues to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal. When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Richard W. Fisher; Narayana Kocherlakota; Sandra Pianalto; Charles I. Plosser; Jerome H. Powell; Jeremy C. Stein; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Janet L. Yellen.

※次期FRB議長イエレン氏は失業率など雇用関連指数に強い関心を持ち、金利に関してはハト派と言われている。

前回のFOMCとの変更点は、QE3実施規模をさらに縮小。

昨年12月まで、毎月850億ドルの流動性供給（ドルをジャブジャブに刷りまくり）

→昨年12月のFOMCで750億ドルへ縮小、

→今回さらに650億ドルへ縮小

毎月100億ドル、約１兆円の流動性供給低下です。

昨年12月に比べると、毎月ベースで約2兆円の流動性供給低下です。

思ったよりも早いペースで蛇口を絞っています。

ドルをジャブジャブにする（＝希薄化）ペースを緩める、ということで、

ファンダメンタル的にはドル高材料です。

逆に、株式市場的には株安材料です。

金利については、金利自体は変更無し。

注目すべき点としては、前回と同様、

失業率が6.5％を下回って改善しても、長期的な物価目標が2%に達しない場合は、利上げしない、

というような内容の一文が入っています。

当分ゼロ金利維持するから安心してね！金利は上げないよ！という株式市場（＆米国債市場）へのメッセージと思われます。

QE3縮小で株暴落＆景気減速懸念が出ることとのバランスを取った形です。

（通貨的にはドル安方向の材料）

ファンダメンタル分析的に考えれば、

・QE3縮小→ドル高、株安

・低金利堅持アピール→ドル安、株高

であり、

単純にどちらか一方通行になるような、単純な材料ではありません。

これを受けてマーケットはどのように反応したのでしょうか。

↓のチャートを見る前に１分間想像してみてください。

・NYダウ の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ドル円 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ユーロドル の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ユーロ円 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ポンドドル の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ポンド円 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・原油 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・金 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

FOMC声明 日本時間 2013/12/19 （木） 04:00ごろ発表

Release Date: December 18, 2013

For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in October indicates that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace. Labor market conditions have shown further improvement; the unemployment rate has declined but remains elevated. Household spending and business fixed investment advanced, while the recovery in the housing sector slowed somewhat in recent months. Fiscal policy is restraining economic growth, although the extent of restraint may be diminishing. Inflation has been running below the Committee's longer-run objective, but longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic growth will pick up from its recent pace and the unemployment rate will gradually decline toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee sees the risks to the outlook for the economy and the labor market as having become more nearly balanced. The Committee recognizes that inflation persistently below its 2 percent objective could pose risks to economic performance, and it is monitoring inflation developments carefully for evidence that inflation will move back toward its objective over the medium term.

Taking into account the extent of federal fiscal retrenchment since the inception of its current asset purchase program, the Committee sees the improvement in economic activity and labor market conditions over that period as consistent with growing underlying strength in the broader economy. In light of the cumulative progress toward maximum employment and the improvement in the outlook for labor market conditions, the Committee decided to modestly reduce the pace of its asset purchases. Beginning in January, the Committee will add to its holdings of agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $35 billion per month rather than $40 billion per month, and will add to its holdings of longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $40 billion per month rather than $45 billion per month. (QE3縮小！！850億ドル→750億ドルへ、毎月100億ドルの流動性供給縮小→ドルの希薄化ペース落とす→ドル高材料) The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. The Committee's sizable and still-increasing holdings of longer-term securities should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative, which in turn should promote a stronger economic recovery and help to ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with the Committee's dual mandate.

The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months and will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until the outlook for the labor market has improved substantially in a context of price stability. If incoming information broadly supports the Committee's expectation of ongoing improvement in labor market conditions and inflation moving back toward its longer-run objective, the Committee will likely reduce the pace of asset purchases in further measured steps at future meetings. However, asset purchases are not on a preset course, and the Committee's decisions about their pace will remain contingent on the Committee's outlook for the labor market and inflation as well as its assessment of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases.

To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends and the economic recovery strengthens. The Committee also reaffirmed its expectation that the current exceptionally low target range for the federal funds rate of 0 to 1/4 percent will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent, inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be no more than a half percentage point above the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored. （微妙に文言を変えてきました。） In determining how long to maintain a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy, the Committee will also consider other information, including additional measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. The Committee now anticipates, based on its assessment of these factors, that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate well past the time that the unemployment rate declines below 6-1/2 percent, especially if projected inflation continues to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal.（失業率が6.5％を下回っても、長期的な物価目標が2%に達しない場合は、利上げしないよ！当分ゼロ金利維持するよ！株式市場へのメッセージか。利上げは株では悪材料、利下げは好材料。QE3縮小とのバランスを取った形） When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; James Bullard; Charles L. Evans; Esther L. George; Jerome H. Powell; Jeremy C. Stein; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against the action was Eric S. Rosengren, who believes that, with the unemployment rate still elevated and the inflation rate well below the target, changes in the purchase program are premature until incoming data more clearly indicate that economic growth is likely to be sustained above its potential rate.

FRB: Press Release--Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement--December 18, 2013
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20131218a.htm

4:30ごろから バーナンキ会見

「政策措置は経済が進展しているとの見方を反映、さらなる進展必要。最近の指標により、労働市場の伸びが継続する。」
「財政面での向かい風は弱まる見通し。」
「回復はまだ完全ではない。」
「経済成長に伴いインフレ率は2％に戻る見通し。」
「かなり緩和的な金融政策は依然として適切。」（金利低→ドル安方向の材料）
「フォワードガイダンスの強化、失業率が6.5％に低下した時点で労働市場に緩みあるとの見通しを反映。」
「インフレ見通しにもかかわらず、金融政策を緩和的に維持する理由としては、緩和縮小プロセス、入念かつ指標次第。指標次第だが状況進展すれば毎回の会合で縮小可能、年末までかかる。」（QE3縮小→ドル高材料、株安材料）
「景気次第で買い入れの停止もしくは拡大が可能。」
「指標が失望誘う内容なら、1回もしくは2回の会合で見送ること可能。」
「今回の決定めぐりイエレン副議長と緊密に協議、イエレン氏はFRBの措置を全面的に支持。」
「インフレのファンダメンタルズ、段階的に上昇する見通しを示唆。」
「インフレが過度に低水準にとどまらないよう確実にすることにコミット、あらゆる必要な措置講じる。」
「取得資産の総額、当初予想を上回っている。」
「非常に短期的には変更予想せず（数値基準について）。」
「様々な方法でガイダンス強化が可能、一段の強化排除せず。」
「（数値基準について）資産買い入れ縮小する間もバランスシートは長期間大規模となる見通し。」

FRB議長交代が近づく中、

今回は色々と変更点がありました。

まず、QE3実施規模縮小の断行。

毎月850億ドル→750億ドルへ、

毎月100億ドル、約１兆円の流動性供給低下です。

ドルをジャブジャブにする（＝希薄化）ペースを緩める、ということで、

ファンダメンタル的にはドル高材料です。

逆に、株式市場的には株安材料です。

金利については、微妙に文言を変えてきましたが、

金利自体は変更無し。

注目すべき点としては、

失業率が6.5％を下回って改善しても、長期的な物価目標が2%に達しない場合は、利上げしない、というような内容の一文が加筆されました。

当分ゼロ金利維持するから安心してね！金利は上げないよ！という株式市場（＆米国債市場）へのメッセージと思われます。

QE3縮小で株暴落＆景気減速懸念が出ることとのバランスを取った形です。

ファンダメンタル分析的に考えれば、

・QE3縮小→ドル高、株安

・低金利堅持アピール→ドル安、株高

であり、

単純にどちらか一方通行になるような、単純な材料ではありません。

これを受けてマーケットはどのように反応したのでしょうか。

↓のチャートを見る前に１分間想像してみてください。

・NYダウ の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ドル円 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ユーロドル の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ユーロ円 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ポンドドル の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ポンド円 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・原油 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・金 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

FOMC声明 日本時間 2013/10/31 （木） 03:00ごろ発表

Press Release

Release Date: October 30, 2013

For immediate release

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September generally suggests that economic activity has continued to expand at a moderate pace. Indicators of labor market conditions have shown some further improvement, but the unemployment rate remains elevated. Available data suggest that household spending and business fixed investment advanced, while the recovery in the housing sector slowed somewhat in recent months. Fiscal policy is restraining economic growth. Apart from fluctuations due to changes in energy prices, inflation has been running below the Committee's longer-run objective, but longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic growth will pick up from its recent pace and the unemployment rate will gradually decline toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee sees the downside risks to the outlook for the economy and the labor market as having diminished, on net, since last fall. The Committee recognizes that inflation persistently below its 2 percent objective could pose risks to economic performance, but it anticipates that inflation will move back toward its objective over the medium term.

Taking into account the extent of federal fiscal retrenchment over the past year, the Committee sees the improvement in economic activity and labor market conditions since it began its asset purchase program as consistent with growing underlying strength in the broader economy. However, the Committee decided to await more evidence that progress will be sustained before adjusting the pace of its purchases. Accordingly, the Committee decided to continue purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month and longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $45 billion per month. (QE3規模維持) The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. Taken together, these actions should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative, which in turn should promote a stronger economic recovery and help to ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with the Committee's dual mandate.

The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months and will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until the outlook for the labor market has improved substantially in a context of price stability. In judging when to moderate the pace of asset purchases, the Committee will, at its coming meetings, assess whether incoming information continues to support the Committee's expectation of ongoing improvement in labor market conditions and inflation moving back toward its longer-run objective. Asset purchases are not on a preset course, and the Committee's decisions about their pace will remain contingent on the Committee's economic outlook as well as its assessment of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases.

To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends and the economic recovery strengthens. In particular, the Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that this exceptionally low range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent, inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be no more than a half percentage point above the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored. In determining how long to maintain a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy, the Committee will also consider other information, including additional measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; James Bullard; Charles L. Evans; Jerome H. Powell; Eric S. Rosengren; Jeremy C. Stein; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against the action was Esther L. George, who was concerned that the continued high level of monetary accommodation increased the risks of future economic and financial imbalances and, over time, could cause an increase in long-term inflation expectations.
　

FRB: Press Release--Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement--September 18, 2013
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20130918a.htm

今回は バーナンキ会見 無し

市場予想どおりの実質ゼロ金利据え置き、

QE3実施規模の据え置き、

「異例の低金利」の具体的な解除条件据え置き、

と、ほぼ完全に前回の内容を踏襲する結果となりました。

ファンダメンタル分析的に考えれば、

材料織り込み済みで動きようがない、

となるように思えます。

これを受けてマーケットはどのように反応したのでしょうか。

↓のチャートを見る前に１分間想像してみてください。

・NYダウ の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ドル円 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ユーロドル の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ユーロ円 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ポンドドル の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ポンド円 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・原油 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・金 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

FOMC声明 日本時間 2013/9/19 （木） 03:00ごろ発表

Press Release

Release Date: September 18, 2013

For immediate release

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in July suggests that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace. Some indicators of labor market conditions have shown further improvement in recent months, but the unemployment rate remains elevated. Household spending and business fixed investment advanced, and the housing sector has been strengthening, but mortgage rates have risen further and fiscal policy is restraining economic growth. Apart from fluctuations due to changes in energy prices, inflation has been running below the Committee's longer-run objective, but longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic growth will pick up from its recent pace and the unemployment rate will gradually decline toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee sees the downside risks to the outlook for the economy and the labor market as having diminished, on net, since last fall, but the tightening of financial conditions observed in recent months, if sustained, could slow the pace of improvement in the economy and labor market. The Committee recognizes that inflation persistently below its 2 percent objective could pose risks to economic performance, but it anticipates that inflation will move back toward its objective over the medium term.

Taking into account the extent of federal fiscal retrenchment, the Committee sees the improvement in economic activity and labor market conditions since it began its asset purchase program a year ago as consistent with growing underlying strength in the broader economy. However, the Committee decided to await more evidence that progress will be sustained before adjusting the pace of its purchases. Accordingly, the Committee decided to continue purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month and longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $45 billion per month. （QE3規模は維持） The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. Taken together, these actions should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative, which in turn should promote a stronger economic recovery and help to ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with the Committee's dual mandate.

The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months and will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until the outlook for the labor market has improved substantially in a context of price stability. In judging when to moderate the pace of asset purchases, the Committee will, at its coming meetings, assess whether incoming information continues to support the Committee's expectation of ongoing improvement in labor market conditions and inflation moving back toward its longer-run objective. Asset purchases are not on a preset course, and the Committee's decisions about their pace will remain contingent on the Committee's economic outlook as well as its assessment of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases.

To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends and the economic recovery strengthens. In particular, the Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that this exceptionally low range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent, inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be no more than a half percentage point above the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored.（特に変更無し） In determining how long to maintain a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy, the Committee will also consider other information, including additional measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; James Bullard; Charles L. Evans; Jerome H. Powell; Eric S. Rosengren; Jeremy C. Stein; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against the action was Esther L. George, who was concerned that the continued high level of monetary accommodation increased the risks of future economic and financial imbalances and, over time, could cause an increase in long-term inflation expectations.（いつものおじちゃんが反対）
　

FRB: Press Release--Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement--September 18, 2013
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20130918a.htm

3:30頃から バーナンキ会見

「失業率は許容範囲より高い。」
「下振れリスクは緩和。」
「財政状況が成長を1％超押し下げている。」
「雇用状況は望ましい状況からかけ離れている。しかし、前進は見られる。」
「少なくとも失業率が6.5％までは現在の低金利が適切。」
「失業率が6.5％を相当程度下回るまで利上げはない公算。」
「資産購入にはあらかじめ定まった道筋ない。」
「見通しに確信が持てれば、年内に資産購入縮小も。この先は経済状況次第。」
「任期の3期目については話したくはない。」
「FOMCには予定外の記者会見という選択肢がある。」
「金利は2016年以降段階的に上昇し、将来的には4％に達する可能性。」

市場予想どおりの実質ゼロ金利据え置き、

QE3実施規模の据え置き、

「異例の低金利」の具体的な解除条件据え置き、

と、ほぼ完全に前回の内容を踏襲する結果となりました。

ファンダメンタル分析的に考えれば、

材料織り込み済みで動きようがない、

となるように思えます。

これを受けてマーケットはどのように反応したのでしょうか。

↓のチャートを見る前に１分間想像してみてください。

・NYダウ の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ドル円 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ユーロドル の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ユーロ円 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ポンドドル の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ポンド円 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・原油 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・金 の値動き → 上昇？下落？