FOMC声明 日本時間 2017年12月14日（木）04:00発表

※前回のFOMC声明はこちら

Press Release
 
December 13, 2017

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement

For release at 2:00 p.m. EST

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in November indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a solid rate. Averaging through hurricane-related fluctuations, job gains have been solid, and the unemployment rate declined further. Household spending has been expanding at a moderate rate, and growth in business fixed investment has picked up in recent quarters. On a 12-month basis, both overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy have declined this year and are running below 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. Hurricane-related disruptions and rebuilding have affected economic activity, employment, and inflation in recent months but have not materially altered the outlook for the national economy. Consequently, the Committee continues to expect that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and labor market conditions will remain strong. Inflation on a 12‑month basis is expected to remain somewhat below 2 percent in the near term but to stabilize around the Committee's 2 percent objective over the medium term. Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced, but the Committee is monitoring inflation developments closely.

In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1-1/4 to 1‑1/2 percent.（1.25～1.50%へ、0.25%の利上げ！） The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting strong labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation.

In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected inflation developments relative to its symmetric inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Patrick Harker; Robert S. Kaplan; Jerome H. Powell; and Randal K. Quarles. Voting against the action were Charles L. Evans and Neel Kashkari, who preferred at this meeting to maintain the existing target range for the federal funds rate.（反対２名。金利据え置きを主張。）

The Fed - Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20171213a.htm

イエレン会見（日本時間4:30ごろから）

「第２、第３四半期の成長は底堅かった。」
「米税制改革はこの先数年、経済を浮揚させる。」
「米税制改革のマクロ経済への影響は不透明。」
「段階的な利上げが適切。」
「労働市場は向こう数年力強い。」
「雇用の増加はいずれ緩やかになる。」
「必要に応じて金融政策を調整する用意。」
「税制改革は緩やかな成長引き上げを支援。」
「経済見通しはかなり不透明。」
「政策は事前に決めていない。」
「インフレ鈍化は一時的な要因を反映。 」
「直近の賃金指標は緩やかな上昇を示すのみ。 」
「税制改革は需要を引き上げると見ている。」
「税制改革は供給も一部上昇すると見ている。」
「ビットコインは極めて投機的資産。 」
「個人的には米国の債務状況を懸念している。」

コメント

FOMC声明については、市場予想どおりの0.25%利上げ（1.25-1.50%）となりました。

特にサプライズはありませんが、利上げはドルにとっては好材料で、株（NYダウ）には悪材料なのが定石です。

※過去のFOMCまとめはこちら

内容については、インフレ状況は予想を若干下回るも、労働市場動向は堅調で、あくまでも利上げ目線のようです。

ただ、委員２名が金利据え置きを主張して反対票を投じており、利上げに向かってまっしぐらイケイケドンドンというわけではないようです。

その後のイエレン会見は、強気で自信に満ちており、まだまだ利上げする余地を伺わせています。

グローバル的な状況を見ると、経済ボロボロで貨幣をジャブジャブ刷って刷って刷りまくり（＆戦争の気配）の欧州、日本と比較すると、相対的には、米国一人勝ち（圧勝）の様相です。

ファンダメンタル分析的に考えれば、

・株安（利上げは株には悪材料）

・ドル高（金利上昇期待）

と考えるのが自然です。

少なくとも、ドル安になる材料ではないように思えます。

では、これを受けて現実のマーケットはどのように反応したのでしょうか。

↓のチャートを見る前に１分間想像してみてください。

・NYダウ の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ドル円 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ユーロドル の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ユーロ円 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ポンドドル の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ポンド円 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・原油 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・金 の値動き → 上昇？下落？