FOMC声明 日本時間 2015/1/29 （木） 04:00ごろ発表

※前回のFOMC声明はこちら

Press Release

Release Date: January 28, 2015

For immediate release

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December suggests that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace.　 Labor market conditions have improved further, with strong job gains and a lower unemployment rate.　 On balance, a range of labor market indicators suggests that underutilization of labor resources continues to diminish.　 Household spending is rising moderately; recent declines in energy prices have boosted household purchasing power.　 Business fixed investment is advancing, while the recovery in the housing sector remains slow.　 Inflation has declined further below the Committee’s longer-run objective, largely reflecting declines in energy prices.　 Market-based measures of inflation compensation have declined substantially in recent months; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability.　 The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, with labor market indicators continuing to move toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate.　 The Committee continues to see the risks to the outlook for economic activity and the labor market as nearly balanced.　 Inflation is anticipated to decline further in the near term, but the Committee expects inflation to rise gradually toward 2 percent over the medium term as the labor market improves further and the transitory effects of lower energy prices and other factors dissipate.　 The Committee continues to monitor inflation developments closely.

To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate remains appropriate.(金利据え置き)　 In determining how long to maintain this target range, the Committee will assess progress--both realized and expected--toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation.　 This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.　 Based on its current assessment, the Committee judges that it can be patient in beginning to normalize the stance of monetary policy.　 However, if incoming information indicates faster progress toward the Committee’s employment and inflation objectives than the Committee now expects, then increases in the target range for the federal funds rate are likely to occur sooner than currently anticipated.　 Conversely, if progress proves slower than expected, then increases in the target range are likely to occur later than currently anticipated.

The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction.　 This policy, by keeping the Committee’s holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.

When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent.　 The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Charles L. Evans; Stanley Fischer; Jeffrey M. Lacker; Dennis P. Lockhart; Jerome H. Powell; Daniel K. Tarullo; and John C. Williams.（反対無し）

FRB: Press Release--Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement--December 17, 2014

今回はイエレン会見無し

今回のFOMCでも、金利自体はゼロ金利据え置きとなりました。

問題は、いつゼロ金利解除するのか、利上げに踏み切るのか、です。

この点、FOMC声明を読むと、

FRBは、基本的には米景況感は底堅く推移していると考えているようで、

目線はあくまでも利上げ方向にあるようです。

経済ボロボロで大規模な量的緩和に踏み切った欧州とは対照的に、

米経済は底堅く回復基調にあるようです。

ただ、「原油安で目先のインフレ期待は下振れした」と明記しており、

前回のイケイケムードからは若干後退したようにも読めます。

ファンダメンタル分析的に考えれば、

・特にサプライズもなく、材料織り込み済みで、さほど動かない

と考えるのが自然です。

これを受けてマーケットはどのように反応したのでしょうか。

↓のチャートを見る前に１分間想像してみてください。

・NYダウ の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ドル円 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ユーロドル の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ユーロ円 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ポンドドル の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ポンド円 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・原油 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・金 の値動き → 上昇？下落？