FOMC声明 日本時間 2015/6/18（木） 03:00ごろ発表

※前回のFOMC声明はこちら

Press Release

Release Date: June 17, 2015

For immediate release

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in April suggests that economic activity has been expanding moderately after having changed little during the first quarter. The pace of job gains picked up while the unemployment rate remained steady. On balance, a range of labor market indicators suggests that underutilization of labor resources diminished somewhat. Growth in household spending has been moderate and the housing sector has shown some improvement; however, business fixed investment and net exports stayed soft. Inflation continued to run below the Committee's longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices and decreasing prices of non-energy imports; energy prices appear to have stabilized. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, with labor market indicators continuing to move toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee continues to see the risks to the outlook for economic activity and the labor market as nearly balanced. Inflation is anticipated to remain near its recent low level in the near term, but the Committee expects inflation to rise gradually toward 2 percent over the medium term as the labor market improves further and the transitory effects of earlier declines in energy and import prices dissipate. The Committee continues to monitor inflation developments closely.

To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate remains appropriate. In determining how long to maintain this target range, the Committee will assess progress--both realized and expected--toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee anticipates that it will be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate when it has seen further improvement in the labor market and is reasonably confident that inflation will move back to its 2 percent objective over the medium term.

The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. This policy, by keeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.

When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Charles L. Evans; Stanley Fischer; Jeffrey M. Lacker; Dennis P. Lockhart; Jerome H. Powell; Daniel K. Tarullo; and John C. Williams.（反対者無し）

FRB: Press Release--Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement--June 17, 2015
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20150617a.htm

その後、日本時間3:30ごろからイエレン会見

「雇用の伸びは加速した。インフレの下振れ圧力は幾分後退。」
「利上げの時期は会合ごとに決定する。」
「初回利上げの重要性を過剰に述べるべきではない。」
「労働市場には循環的な弱さが幾分残る。」
「ＦＯＭＣはインフレは今年かなり低いと予想。」
「経済情勢はまだ利上げを正当化しない。」
「進展を示すもっと決定的な証拠を待っている。」
「ドルは概ね安定。」
「年内の利上げを正当化する指標が出てくる公算大きい。」
「利上げ時期が9月、12月、来年3月でも構わない。全体の道筋が重要。」
「ギリシャ合意なければ、ユーロ崩壊の潜在的な可能性に。ギリシャ合意に至らなければ世界金融市場に影響及ぶ可能性。」
「この1年のドル上昇は著しい。ドルは純輸出にマイナスの影響をもたらした。ドル高は経済見通しに影響する一要素。」
「ドル高でも年内利上げは正当化される。」

今回のFOMCでも、金利自体はゼロ金利据え置きとなりました。

問題は、いつゼロ金利解除するのか、利上げに踏み切るのか、です。

この点、FOMC声明を読むと、

目線はあくまでも利上げ方向にあるようです。

経済ボロボロで大規模な量的緩和に踏み切った欧州とは対照的に、

米経済は底堅く回復基調にあるようです。

また、その後のイエレン会見では、

（年内）利上げ目線の強気発言と、

市場の利上げ期待を牽制する慎重姿勢が入り交じっており、

好悪いずれの材料も織り混ざった内容となりました。

以前のようなイケイケムードからは若干後退したようにも思えますが、

経済ボロボロの欧州、日本と比較すると、

あくまでも米国一人勝ちの構図は変わっていません。

ファンダメンタル分析的に考えれば、

FOMC声明で乱高下、

その後イエレン会見でも再度乱高下、

結局元の水準に戻る、

と考えるのが自然です。

これを受けてマーケットはどのように反応したのでしょうか。

↓のチャートを見る前に１分間想像してみてください。

・NYダウ の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ドル円 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ユーロドル の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ユーロ円 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ポンドドル の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ポンド円 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・原油 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・金 の値動き → 上昇？下落？