FXテクニカル分析＆業者比較Blog

FOMC声明 日本時間 2013/8/1 （木） 03:00ごろ発表

Press Release

Release Date: July 31, 2013

For immediate release

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June suggests that economic activity expanded at a modest pace during the first half of the year. Labor market conditions have shown further improvement in recent months, on balance, but the unemployment rate remains elevated. Household spending and business fixed investment advanced, and the housing sector has been strengthening, but mortgage rates have risen somewhat and fiscal policy is restraining economic growth. Partly reflecting transitory influences, inflation has been running below the Committee's longer-run objective, but longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic growth will pick up from its recent pace and the unemployment rate will gradually decline toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee sees the downside risks to the outlook for the economy and the labor market as having diminished since the fall. The Committee recognizes that inflation persistently below its 2 percent objective could pose risks to economic performance, but it anticipates that inflation will move back toward its objective over the medium term.

To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, the Committee decided to continue purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month and longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $45 billion per month. (QE3実施規模は維持) The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. Taken together, these actions should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative.

The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months. The Committee will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until the outlook for the labor market has improved substantially in a context of price stability. The Committee is prepared to increase or reduce the pace of its purchases to maintain appropriate policy accommodation as the outlook for the labor market or inflation changes. In determining the size, pace, and composition of its asset purchases, the Committee will continue to take appropriate account of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases as well as the extent of progress toward its economic objectives.

To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends and the economic recovery strengthens. In particular, the Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that this exceptionally low range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent, inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be no more than a half percentage point above the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored. （特に数値基準などに変更なし） In determining how long to maintain a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy, the Committee will also consider other information, including additional measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; James Bullard; Elizabeth A. Duke; Charles L. Evans; Jerome H. Powell; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Eric S. Rosengren; Jeremy C. Stein; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against the action was Esther L. George, who was concerned that the continued high level of monetary accommodation increased the risks of future economic and financial imbalances and, over time, could cause an increase in long-term inflation expectations.（今回は反対１名）

FRB: Press Release--Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement--July 31, 2013
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20130731a.htm

市場予想どおりの実質ゼロ金利据え置き、

QE3実施規模の据え置き、

「異例の低金利」の具体的な解除条件据え置き、

と、ほぼ完全に市場予想どおりの結果となりました。

また、前回は反対が２名でしたが、今回は反対１名となり、

FOMC委員会の中でのコンセンサスが固まってきました。

ファンダメンタル分析的に考えれば、

ほぼ完全に予想どおりの材料で、

材料織り込み済みで動きようがない、

となるように思えます。

これを受けてマーケットはどのように反応したのでしょうか。

↓のチャートを見る前に１分間想像してみてください。

・NYダウ の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ドル円 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ユーロドル の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ユーロ円 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ポンドドル の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ポンド円 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・原油 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・金 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

FOMC声明 日本時間 2013/6/20 （木） 03:00ごろ発表

Release Date: June 19, 2013

For immediate release

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in May suggests that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace. Labor market conditions have shown further improvement in recent months, on balance, but the unemployment rate remains elevated. Household spending and business fixed investment advanced, and the housing sector has strengthened further, but fiscal policy is restraining economic growth. Partly reflecting transitory influences, inflation has been running below the Committee's longer-run objective, but longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic growth will proceed at a moderate pace and the unemployment rate will gradually decline toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee sees the downside risks to the outlook for the economy and the labor market as having diminished since the fall. The Committee also anticipates that inflation over the medium term likely will run at or below its 2 percent objective.

To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, the Committee decided to continue purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month and longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $45 billion per month.（量的緩和850億ドル維持） The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. Taken together, these actions should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative.

The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months. The Committee will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until the outlook for the labor market has improved substantially in a context of price stability. The Committee is prepared to increase or reduce the pace of its purchases to maintain appropriate policy accommodation as the outlook for the labor market or inflation changes. In determining the size, pace, and composition of its asset purchases, the Committee will continue to take appropriate account of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases as well as the extent of progress toward its economic objectives.

To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee expects that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends and the economic recovery strengthens. In particular, the Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that this exceptionally low range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent, inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be no more than a half percentage point above the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored. （金利据え置き、前回と同じ）In determining how long to maintain a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy, the Committee will also consider other information, including additional measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Charles L. Evans; Jerome H. Powell; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Eric S. Rosengren; Jeremy C. Stein; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against the action was James Bullard, who believed that the Committee should signal more strongly its willingness to defend its inflation goal in light of recent low inflation readings, and Esther L. George, who was concerned that the continued high level of monetary accommodation increased the risks of future economic and financial imbalances and, over time, could cause an increase in long-term inflation expectations. (２名反対)

FRB: Press Release--Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement --June 19, 2013
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20130619a.htm

日本時間 3:30ごろ、バーナンキ議長会見

「緩やかな回復を見込む。財政政策からの逆風が見込まれる。」
「雇用改善や住宅市場回復が消費者信頼感を引き上げた。」
「多数のメンバーは出口戦略の仮定でＭＢＳの売却に否定的。」
「失業率6.5％への低下、自動的に利上げにつながるわけではない。」
「資産買い入れ終了と金利引き上げの間にかなりの期間あると想定。」
「資産買い入れペースの縮小、経済が予想通り推移すれば年内となる公算と予想。」
「資産買い入れの終了、経済見通し正しければ来年半ばまでに行われる見通し。」
「資産買い入れ縮小に決まった計画はない。経済の状況次第。」
「米国債の利回り上昇は見通しが楽観的見方やFRB政策に対する認識が一因。」
「今後の去就についてはコメントせず。」
「失業率の基準値を調整する可能性も。」
「資産購入終了には依然として距離がある。 」
「必要なら更なる支援も。」
「メンバーの大多数は15年末も低金利を予想。」
「低過ぎるインフレは問題。 インフレが目標下回っていることをFRBが懸念していないというのはまったくの誤り。」

市場予想どおりの実質ゼロ金利据え置き、

QE3実施規模の据え置き、

「異例の低金利」の具体的な解除条件据え置き、

と、おおむね予想どおりの結果となりましたが、

反対の委員が前回の１名に対して今回は２名となりました。

その後のバーナンキ議長会見では、

今までとうって変わって、

希望があちこちに垣間見える内容でした。

長く続いた夜の、夜明けがようやくうっすらと見えてきた感じです。

ファンダメンタル分析的に考えれば、

量的緩和の解除方向

→ドルをジャブジャブ供給してる蛇口を絞る

→株は下落、ドルは上昇

となるように思えます。

これを受けてマーケットはどのように反応したのでしょうか。

↓のチャートを見る前に１分間想像してみてください。

・NYダウ の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ドル円 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ユーロドル の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ユーロ円 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ポンドドル の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ポンド円 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・原油 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・金 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

FOMC声明 日本時間 2013/5/2 （木） 03:00ごろ発表

Release Date: May 1, 2013

For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March suggests that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace. Labor market conditions have shown some improvement in recent months, on balance, but the unemployment rate remains elevated. Household spending and business fixed investment advanced, and the housing sector has strengthened further, but fiscal policy is restraining economic growth. Inflation has been running somewhat below the Committee's longer-run objective, apart from temporary variations that largely reflect fluctuations in energy prices. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic growth will proceed at a moderate pace and the unemployment rate will gradually decline toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee continues to see downside risks to the economic outlook. The Committee also anticipates that inflation over the medium term likely will run at or below its 2 percent objective.

To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, the Committee decided to continue purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month and longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $45 billion per month. （量的緩和850億ドル維持） The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. Taken together, these actions should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative.

The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months. The Committee will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until the outlook for the labor market has improved substantially in a context of price stability. The Committee is prepared to increase or reduce the pace of its purchases to maintain appropriate policy accommodation as the outlook for the labor market or inflation changes. In determining the size, pace, and composition of its asset purchases, the Committee will continue to take appropriate account of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases as well as the extent of progress toward its economic objectives.

To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee expects that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends and the economic recovery strengthens. In particular, the Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that this exceptionally low range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent, inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be no more than a half percentage point above the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored.（金利据え置き、前回と同じ） In determining how long to maintain a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy, the Committee will also consider other information, including additional measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; James Bullard; Elizabeth A. Duke; Charles L. Evans; Jerome H. Powell; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Eric S. Rosengren; Jeremy C. Stein; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against the action was Esther L. George, who was concerned that the continued high level of monetary accommodation increased the risks of future economic and financial imbalances and, over time, could cause an increase in long-term inflation expectations. （前回と同じ理由で反対）

FRB: Press Release--Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement--May 1, 2013
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20130501a.htm

市場予想どおりの実質ゼロ金利据え置き、

QE3実施規模の据え置き、

「異例の低金利」の具体的な解除条件据え置き、

と、おおむね予想どおりの結果となりました。

一名だけ反対票を投じたジョージ委員の反対意見も、前回と同じです。

これを受けてマーケットはどのように反応したのでしょうか。

↓のチャートを見る前に１分間想像してみてください。

・NYダウ の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ドル円 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ユーロドル の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ユーロ円 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ポンドドル の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ポンド円 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・原油 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・金 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

FOMC声明　日本時間　2013/3/21 （木） 03:00ごろ発表

Press Release
　
Release Date: March 20, 2013

For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January suggests a return to moderate economic growth following a pause late last year.　 Labor market conditions have shown signs of improvement in recent months but the unemployment rate remains elevated.　 Household spending and business fixed investment advanced, and the housing sector has strengthened further, but fiscal policy has become somewhat more restrictive.　 Inflation has been running somewhat below the Committee's longer-run objective, apart from temporary variations that largely reflect fluctuations in energy prices.　 Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability.　 The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic growth will proceed at a moderate pace and the unemployment rate will gradually decline toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate.　 The Committee continues to see downside risks to the economic outlook.　 The Committee also anticipates that inflation over the medium term likely will run at or below its 2 percent objective.

To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, the Committee decided to continue purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month and longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $45 billion per month.　（QE3実施規模は維持）　 The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction.　 Taken together, these actions should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative.

The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months.　 The Committee will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until the outlook for the labor market has improved substantially in a context of price stability.　 In determining the size, pace, and composition of its asset purchases, the Committee will continue to take appropriate account of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases as well as the extent of progress toward its economic objectives.

To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee expects that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends and the economic recovery strengthens.　 In particular, the Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that this exceptionally low range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent, inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be no more than a half percentage point above the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored.　 In determining how long to maintain a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy, the Committee will also consider other information, including additional measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments.　 When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; James Bullard; Elizabeth A. Duke; Charles L. Evans; Jerome H. Powell; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Eric S. Rosengren; Jeremy C. Stein; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Janet L. Yellen.　 Voting against the action was Esther L. George, who was concerned that the continued high level of monetary accommodation increased the risks of future economic and financial imbalances and, over time, could cause an increase in long-term inflation expectations.

FRB: Press Release--Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement--March 20, 2013
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20130320a.htm

3:00　FOMC Economic Projections　発表

失業率見通し：
2013年　7.3-7.5%（従来7.4-7.7%）下方修正（改善方向）
2014年　6.7-7.0%（従来6.8-7.3%）
2015年　6.0-6.5%（従来6.0-6.6%）

成長率見通し：
2013年　2.3-2.8%（従来2.3-3.0%）下方修正
2014年　2.9-3.4%（従来3.0-3.5%）
2015年　2.9-3.7%（従来3.0-3.7%）

インフレ率（PCE)見通し：
2013年　1.3-1.7%（従来1.3-2.0%）下方修正（沈静化方向）
2014年　1.5-2.0%（従来1.5-2.0%）
2015年　1.7-2.0%（従来1.7-2.0%）
.　

3:30ごろ　バーナンキ議長会見

「穏やかな成長に戻っている」
「失業率は依然として高い」
「住宅市場はさらに伸びている。」
「民間雇用市場の成長はさらに急速。」
「インフレ見通しは安定的。」
「FOMCで資産購入のリスクについても議論した」
「資産購入の終了から利上げまでにかなりの時間的な隔たり。」
「緩和規模調整のため資産買い入れペースを月ごとに調整する可能性。」（QE3終了への布石）
「失業率基準のさらなる引き下げ、刺激策への一手段となる可能性。」（利上げ先延ばし方向）
「過度に力強い成長予想していない、FOMC失業率見通しは昨年9月から著しく改善。」

市場予想どおりの実質ゼロ金利据え置き、

QE3実施規模の据え置き、

「異例の低金利」の具体的な解除条件据え置き、

と、おおむね予想どおりの結果となりましたが、

「ハイレベルの金融緩和を続けると、将来の不均衡リスク、長期的インフレ期待を招く」という趣旨の、

引き締め方向の意見も出たようです。

また、FOMC経済見通しでは、

失業率は改善方向での見通し修正、

成長率はやや下方修正

インフレは沈静化方向での見直しとなりました。

労働環境は予想以上の改善、

ただし、景気、インフレは思ったほどではない、

ということのようです。

また、バーナンキ会見では、

経済見通しについていくぶん楽観的な雰囲気が出てきたようで、

希望の光が見えてきたような感じです。

量的緩和QE3（要するにドルをジャブジャブ刷りまくり）についても、出口が見えてきました。

悪くない内容です。

これを受けてマーケットはどのように反応したのでしょうか。

↓のチャートを見る前に１分間想像してみてください。

・NYダウ　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ドル円　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ユーロドル　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ユーロ円　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ポンドドル　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ポンド円　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・原油　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・金　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？ 　

日本時間　2013/1/31 （木） 04：15ごろ発表

Press Release
　
Release Date: January 30, 2013

For immediate release

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December suggests that growth in economic activity paused in recent months, in large part because of weather-related disruptions and other transitory factors. Employment has continued to expand at a moderate pace but the unemployment rate remains elevated. Household spending and business fixed investment advanced, and the housing sector has shown further improvement. Inflation has been running somewhat below the Committee's longer-run objective, apart from temporary variations that largely reflect fluctuations in energy prices. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic growth will proceed at a moderate pace and the unemployment rate will gradually decline toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate.　 Although strains in global financial markets have eased somewhat, the Committee continues to see downside risks to the economic outlook. The Committee also anticipates that inflation over the medium term likely will run at or below its 2 percent objective.

To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, the Committee will continue purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month and longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $45 billion per month. The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. Taken together, these actions should maintain downward pressure on　 longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative.

The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months. If the outlook for the labor market does not improve substantially, the Committee will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until such improvement is achieved in a context of price stability. In determining the size, pace, and composition of its asset purchases, the Committee will, as always, take appropriate account of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases.

To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee expects that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends and the economic recovery strengthens. In particular, the Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that this exceptionally low range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent, inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be no more than a half percentage point above the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored. （前回と同じゼロ金利解除３条件）　In determining how long to maintain a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy, the Committee will also consider other information, including additional measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; James Bullard; Elizabeth A. Duke; Charles L. Evans; Jerome H. Powell; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Eric S. Rosengren; Jeremy C. Stein; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against the action was Esther L. George, who was concerned that the continued high level of monetary accommodation increased the risks of future economic and financial imbalances and, over time, could cause an increase in long-term inflation expectations.

FRB: Press Release--Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement--January 30, 2013
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20130130a.htm

市場予想どおりの実質ゼロ金利据え置き、

QE3実施規模の据え置き、

「異例の低金利」の具体的な解除条件据え置き、

と、予想どおりの結果となりました。

これを受けてマーケットはどのように反応したのでしょうか。

↓のチャートを見る前に１分間想像してみてください。

・NYダウ　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ドル円　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ユーロドル　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ユーロ円　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ポンドドル　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ポンド円　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・原油　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・金　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？ 　

日本時間　2012/12/13 （木） 02：30ごろ発表

Release Date: December 12, 2012

For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in October suggests that economic activity and employment have continued to expand at a moderate pace in recent months, apart from weather-related disruptions. Although the unemployment rate has declined somewhat since the summer, it remains elevated. Household spending has continued to advance, and the housing sector has shown further signs of improvement, but growth in business fixed investment has slowed. Inflation has been running somewhat below the Committee's longer-run objective, apart from temporary variations that largely reflect fluctuations in energy prices. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee remains concerned that, without sufficient policy accommodation, economic growth might not be strong enough to generate sustained improvement in labor market conditions. Furthermore, strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook. The Committee also anticipates that inflation over the medium term likely will run at or below its 2 percent objective.

To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, the Committee will continue purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month. The Committee also will purchase longer-term Treasury securities after its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of Treasury securities is completed at the end of the year, initially at a pace of $45 billion per month. The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and, in January, will resume rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. Taken together, these actions should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative.

The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months. If the outlook for the labor market does not improve substantially, the Committee will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until such improvement is achieved in a context of price stability. In determining the size, pace, and composition of its asset purchases, the Committee will, as always, take appropriate account of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases.

To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee expects that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends and the economic recovery strengthens. In particular, the Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that this exceptionally low range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent(失業率6.5％を超えるうちは異例の低金利が適切である), inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be no more than a half percentage point above the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal（向こう1年から2年の間のインフレ率が、委員会の長期的目標である2%を0.5%上回ると予測されないうちは、異例の低金利が適切である）, and longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored.（そしてより長期的なインフレ予測がしっかりと安定的であり続けるうちは、異例の低金利が適切である） The Committee views these thresholds as consistent with its earlier date-based guidance. In determining how long to maintain a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy, the Committee will also consider other information, including additional measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Dennis P. Lockhart; Sandra Pianalto; Jerome H. Powell; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Jeremy C. Stein; Daniel K. Tarullo; John C. Williams; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against the action was Jeffrey M. Lacker, who opposed the asset purchase program and the characterization of the conditions under which an exceptionally low range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate.（いつものおじちゃんが反対）

FRB: Press Release--Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement--December 12, 2012 http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20121212a.htm

市場予想どおりの実質ゼロ金利据え置きでしたが、

まず、QE3の実施規模縮小、

そしてなんと、

「異例の低金利」の具体的な解除条件が三つ飛び出してきました！

・失業率6.5％以下になること

・１～２年先のインフレ率予測が2.5%を超えること

・より長期的な（３年以上先の）インフレ予測が、上振れの恐れがあること

以上の三つの条件をクリアすれば、

徐々に金利を上げていく、ということのようです。

今までは2015年半ばまで異例の低金利を続ける！と言ってきたわけですが、

突如スタンスが変わってきました。

面白いことになってきました。

これを受けてマーケットはどのように反応したのでしょうか。

↓のチャートを見る前に１分間想像してみてください。

・NYダウ　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ドル円　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ユーロドル　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ユーロ円　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ポンドドル　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ポンド円　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・原油　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・金　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？ 　

日本時間　2012/10/25 （木） 03：15ごろ発表

Press Release
　
Release Date: October 24, 2012

For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September suggests that economic activity has continued to expand at a moderate pace in recent months.　 Growth in employment has been slow, and the unemployment rate remains elevated.　 Household spending has advanced a bit more quickly, but growth in business fixed investment has slowed.　 The housing sector has shown some further signs of improvement, albeit from a depressed level.　 Inflation recently picked up somewhat, reflecting higher energy prices.　 Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability.　 The Committee remains concerned that, without sufficient policy accommodation, economic growth might not be strong enough to generate sustained improvement in labor market conditions.　 Furthermore, strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook.　 The Committee also anticipates that inflation over the medium term likely would run at or below its 2 percent objective.

To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, the Committee will continue purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month.　 The Committee also will continue through the end of the year its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of Treasury securities, and it is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed　 securities in agency mortgage-backed securities.　 These actions, which together will increase the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities by about $85 billion each month through the end of the year, should put downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative.

The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months.　 If the outlook for the labor market does not improve substantially, the Committee will continue its purchases of agency mortgage-backed securities, undertake additional asset purchases, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate until such improvement is achieved in a context of price stability.　 In determining the size, pace, and composition of its asset purchases, the Committee will, as always, take appropriate account of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases.

To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee expects that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the economic recovery strengthens.　 In particular, the Committee also decided today to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate are likely to be warranted at least through mid-2015. （2015年半ばまで異例の低金利を続ける、前回と変化なし）

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Dennis P. Lockhart; Sandra Pianalto; Jerome H. Powell; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Jeremy C. Stein; Daniel K. Tarullo; John C. Williams; and Janet L. Yellen.　 Voting against the action was Jeffrey M. Lacker, who opposed additional asset purchases and disagreed with the description of the time period over which a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate and exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate are likely to be warranted.

FRB: Press Release--Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement--October 24, 2012
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20121024a.htm

市場予想どおりの実質ゼロ金利据え置きでした。

また、異例の低金利を続ける期間も「2015年半ばまで」で変わらず、

QE3の実施も、前回発表と変わらない規模でした。

概ね前回の発表を踏襲しており、あまりサプライズのない発表となりました。

常識的、ファンダメンタル分析的に考えると、

材料織り込み済みで動かず！となりそうです。

（それでも量的緩和でドルをジャブジャブ供給ということで、

決してドル高になるような材料ではありません。株高、ドル安方向。）

では、この材料を受けて、机上の空論ならぬ現実のマーケットはどのように動いたのでしょうか？

↓のチャートを見る前に１分間想像してみてください。

・NYダウ　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ドル円　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ユーロドル　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ユーロ円　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ポンドドル　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ポンド円　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・原油　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・金　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？ 　

日本時間　2012/09/14 （金） 01:30ごろ発表

Press Release
　
Release Date: September 13, 2012

For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in August suggests that economic activity has continued to expand at a moderate pace in recent months.　 Growth in employment has been slow, and the unemployment rate remains elevated.　 Household spending has continued to advance, but growth in business fixed investment appears to have slowed.　 The housing sector has shown some further signs of improvement, albeit from a depressed level.　 Inflation has been subdued, although the prices of some key commodities have increased recently. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability.　 The Committee is concerned that, without further policy accommodation, economic growth might not be strong enough to generate sustained improvement in labor market conditions.　 Furthermore, strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook.　 The Committee also anticipates that inflation over the medium term likely would run at or below its 2 percent objective.

To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, the Committee agreed today to increase policy accommodation by purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month.（いわゆるQE3実施決定！月400億ドルのMBS買い入れ！ドルをジャブジャブ刷りまくり！）　 The Committee also will continue through the end of the year its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of securities as announced in June, and it is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities.　 These actions, which together will increase the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities by about $85 billion each month through the end of the year, should put downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative.　

The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months.　 If the outlook for the labor market does not improve substantially, the Committee will continue its purchases of agency mortgage-backed securities, undertake additional asset purchases, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate until such improvement is achieved in a context of price stability.　 In determining the size, pace, and composition of its asset purchases, the Committee will, as always, take appropriate account of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases.

To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee expects that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the economic recovery strengthens.　 In particular, the Committee also decided today to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate are likely to be warranted at least through mid-2015.（2015年半ばまで異例の低金利を続けるとの宣言！2014年から延長！）

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Dennis P. Lockhart; Sandra Pianalto; Jerome H. Powell; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Jeremy C. Stein; Daniel K. Tarullo; John C. Williams; and Janet L. Yellen.　 Voting against the action was Jeffrey M. Lacker, who opposed additional asset purchases and preferred to omit the description of the time period over which exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate are likely to be warranted. （いつもの人が反対）

FRB: Press Release--Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement--September 13, 2012
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20120913a.htm

3:00ごろ　FOMC経済見通し発表

3:15ごろ　バーナンキ議長会見

「雇用情勢を非常に懸念。」
「金融政策は万能薬ではない。」
「景気回復は不十分。」
「新MBS購入は住宅市場をサポート。　」
「欧州情勢や財政で逆風にさらされている。」
「FRBの資産購入は財政支出と同じではない。FRBの資産購入が財政赤字削減への強い支援となる。」
「インフレはFRB目標の2％付近に留まっている。」
「引き締め政策に急がず、回復がしっかりと根付くまで時間かける。」(利上げに慎重姿勢)
「失業率低下で一段の進展確認する必要。」
「景気が弱まれば証券購入をもっと増やす。」（ドルはジャンジャンいくらでも刷りますよ）
「購入の総額は景気がどうなるかで決まる。」
「政治的、財政政策的な不透明感が雇用と設備投資に影響。」
「不透明感が早く解消されればされるほど恩恵を受ける。」
「労働参加率の低下は一部景気循環的な要因による。」
「職探しをあきらめたり、やる気なくして離れた人もいる。」

市場予想どおりの実質ゼロ金利据え置きでしたが、

まずQE3実施宣言、しかも、労働市場が改善されるまで資産購入を続けますよ＝ドルをジャブジャブ刷り続けますよ宣言！

次いで、なんと2015年までの異例の低金利継続宣言！が来ました。

驚いた人が多いと思います。

その後のバーナンキ会見では、

前回と同様、基本的に悲観的な内容となりました。

常識的、ファンダメンタル分析的に考えると、

FOMC金利で、まずドルが大暴落、

株は低金利継続の安心感とドルジャブジャブで上昇、

となるのが自然に思えます。

では、この材料を受けて、机上の空論ならぬ現実のマーケットはどのように動いたのでしょうか？

↓のチャートを見る前に１分間想像してみてください。

・NYダウ　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ドル円　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ユーロドル　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ユーロ円　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ポンドドル　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ポンド円　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・原油　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・金　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？ 　

日本時間　2012/08/02 （木） 3：13ごろ発表 （3:15の予定が若干のフライング）

Press Release
　
Release Date: August 1, 2012

For immediate release

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June suggests that economic activity decelerated somewhat over the first half of this year. Growth in employment has been slow in recent months, and the unemployment rate remains elevated. Business fixed investment has continued to advance. Household spending has been rising at a somewhat slower pace than earlier in the year. Despite some further signs of improvement, the housing sector remains depressed. Inflation has declined since earlier this year, mainly reflecting lower prices of crude oil and gasoline, and longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects economic growth to remain moderate over coming quarters and then to pick up very gradually. Consequently, the Committee anticipates that the unemployment rate will decline only slowly toward levels that it judges to be consistent with its dual mandate. Furthermore, strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook. The Committee anticipates that inflation over the medium term will run at or below the rate that it judges most consistent with its dual mandate.

To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, the Committee expects to maintain a highly accommodative stance for monetary policy. In particular, the Committee decided today to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that economic conditions--including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run--are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through late 2014.

The Committee also decided to continue through the end of the year its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of securities as announced in June, and it is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities. The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments and will provide additional accommodation as needed to promote a stronger economic recovery and sustained improvement in labor market conditions in a context of price stability.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Dennis P. Lockhart; Sandra Pianalto; Jerome H. Powell; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Jeremy C. Stein; Daniel K. Tarullo; John C. Williams; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against the action was Jeffrey M. Lacker, who preferred to omit the description of the time period over which economic conditions are likely to warrant an exceptionally low level of the federal funds rate. （いつものおじちゃんが反対）

FRB: Press Release--Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement--August 1, 2012
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20120801a.htm

市場予想どおりの実質ゼロ金利据え置きでした。

そして、前回と同様、例の2014年終盤まで異例の低金利を続けることが明記されました。

そしてこれも前回と同様、反対票を投じたのは１名で、

理由は、異例の低金利を保証する期間（2014年まで云々）の記述を省くべきだというものでした。

常識的、ファンダメンタル分析的に考えると、

特に材料視するような要素は何も無く、

株　 ほとんど動かず！！

ドル　ほとんど動かず！！

となるのが自然に思えます。

では、この材料を受けて、机上の空論ならぬ現実のマーケットはどのように動いたのでしょうか？

↓のチャートを見る前に１分間想像してみてください。

・NYダウ　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ドル円　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ユーロドル　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ユーロ円　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ポンドドル　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ポンド円　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・原油　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・金　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？ 　

日本時間　2012/06/21 （木） 01:30ごろ発表

Press Release
　
Release Date: June 20, 2012

For immediate release

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in April suggests that the economy has been expanding moderately this year. However, growth in employment has slowed in recent months, and the unemployment rate remains elevated. Business fixed investment has continued to advance. Household spending appears to be rising at a somewhat slower pace than earlier in the year. Despite some signs of improvement, the housing sector remains depressed. Inflation has declined, mainly reflecting lower prices of crude oil and gasoline, and longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects economic growth to remain moderate over coming quarters and then to pick up very gradually. Consequently, the Committee anticipates that the unemployment rate will decline only slowly toward levels that it judges to be consistent with its dual mandate. Furthermore, strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook. The Committee anticipates that inflation over the medium term will run at or below the rate that it judges most consistent with its dual mandate.

To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, the Committee expects to maintain a highly accommodative stance for monetary policy. In particular, the Committee decided today to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that economic conditions--including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run--are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through late 2014. （予想どおりの金利据え置き、2014年まで異例の低金利を続ける）

The Committee also decided to continue through the end of the year its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of securities. Specifically, the Committee intends to purchase Treasury securities with remaining maturities of 6 years to 30 years at the current pace and to sell or redeem an equal amount of Treasury securities with remaining maturities of approximately 3 years or less. This continuation of the maturity extension program should put downward pressure on longer-term interest rates and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative. The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities. The Committee is prepared to take further action as appropriate to promote a stronger economic recovery and sustained improvement in labor market conditions in a context of price stability.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Dennis P. Lockhart; Sandra Pianalto; Jerome H. Powell; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Jeremy C. Stein; Daniel K. Tarullo; John C. Williams; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against the action was Jeffrey M. Lacker, who opposed continuation of the maturity extension program.（いつものおじちゃんが反対）

FRB: Press Release--Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement --June 20, 2012
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20120620a.htm

3:00ごろ　FOMC経済見通し発表 　　　

3:15ごろ　バーナンキ議長会見

「長期金利に下振れ圧力。オペレーション・ツイストは長期金利を押し下げる。」
「景気拡大は緩やか。企業、家計の消費は緩やかに上昇。ここ数ヵ月、雇用増加は小さくなった。」
「欧州問題が加わった。」
「経済に一段の支援必要なら追加資産買い入れを検討。」
「金融政策は万能薬ではない。」
「安全志向のフローが金利を押し下げている。更なる金利引き下げも可能。」
「オペレーション・ツイストは意味がある。」
「欧州は問題に対処する上で十分なリソース有する。建設的なら欧州と協力する用意。現時点では話し合いの状況。」
「財政の崖めぐる不透明性、年内に経済に影響すると予想。」
「欧州情勢が米成長を緩めている。」
「労働市場が持続的に回復しているか否かを把握するため、全ての労働関連指標を注視。」
「欧州情勢悪化なら、FRBは米経済、金融システムを守る用意。」
「大規模な資産購入は解除過程を引き延ばす。」
「非標準的な金融政策は十分な認識はなく、コストとリスクを併せ持つ。」
「FRBは欧州ソブリン債買い入れない。」

市場予想どおりの実質ゼロ金利据え置きでした。

そして、前回と同様、例の2014年終盤まで異例の低金利を続けることが明記されました。

そしてこれも前回と同様、反対票を投じたのは１名で、

理由はmaturity extension program＝いわゆるオペレーション・ツイストの期限延長に反対するというものでした。

その後のバーナンキ会見では、

希望あふれる前回とは打って変わって、

総悲観とも言える内容でした。　

常識的、ファンダメンタル分析的に考えると、

FOMC金利では、株、ドル相場、ともにさほど動かず、

バーナンキ議長会見で、やっぱりダメだこりゃとなって、

株　 暴落

ドル　暴落

となるのが自然に思えます。

では、この材料を受けて、机上の空論ならぬ現実のマーケットはどのように動いたのでしょうか？

↓のチャートを見る前に１分間想像してみてください。

・NYダウ　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ドル円　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ユーロドル　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ユーロ円　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ポンドドル　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ポンド円　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・原油　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・金　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？ 　

日本時間2012/04/26 （木） 01:30ごろ発表

Press Release
　
Release Date: April 25, 2012

For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March suggests that the economy has been expanding moderately. Labor market conditions have improved in recent months; the unemployment rate has declined but remains elevated. Household spending and business fixed investment have continued to advance. Despite some signs of improvement, the housing sector remains depressed. Inflation has picked up somewhat, mainly reflecting higher prices of crude oil and gasoline. However, longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects economic growth to remain moderate over coming quarters and then to pick up gradually. Consequently, the Committee anticipates that the unemployment rate will decline gradually toward levels that it judges to be consistent with its dual mandate. Strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook. The increase in oil and gasoline prices earlier this year is expected to affect inflation only temporarily, and the Committee anticipates that subsequently inflation will run at or below the rate that it judges most consistent with its dual mandate.

To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, the Committee expects to maintain a highly accommodative stance for monetary policy. In particular, the Committee decided today to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that economic conditions--including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run--are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through late 2014.（予想どおりの金利据え置き、2014年まで異例の低金利を続ける）

The Committee also decided to continue its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of securities as announced in September. The Committee is maintaining its existing policies of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. The Committee will regularly review the size and composition of its securities holdings and is prepared to adjust those holdings as appropriate to promote a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Dennis P. Lockhart; Sandra Pianalto; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Daniel K. Tarullo; John C. Williams; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against the action was Jeffrey M. Lacker, who does not anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate through late 2014. （いつものおじさんが反対）

FRB: Press Release--Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement--April 25, 2012
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20120425a.htm

3:00ごろ　FOMC経済見通し発表

3:15ごろ　バーナンキ議長会見

「FRBは追加策の用意は残している。」
「インフレは目標に近づいている。」
「コアインフレは予想より強い。」
「もし強い指標が見られれば調整も。」
「経済指標次第。」
「日銀と見解の相違が見られるとの指摘は間違い。」
「米国はデフレではない。」
「FOMCは当面、現在提示した声明が心地よい。」
「市場はスペイン、イタリアからのストレスにさらされている。」
「失業率改善のため高いインフレ率は必要ない。」
「今後の経済動向は依然不透明。」
「ツイストオペを終了しても金利への影響は最小限。」
「金融政策の目的は投資家を失望させないことでない。」
「いずれかの時点では利上げも。」
「暖冬はたぶん1月と2月の雇用を前倒しさせた。将来の雇用創出予測は、これまでの5～6ヵ月間ほどは多くない。」

市場予想どおりの実質ゼロ金利据え置きでした。

そして、前回と同様、例の2014年終盤まで異例の低金利を続けることが明記されました。

そしてこれも前回と同様、反対票を投じたのは１名で、理由は、

2014年云々の記載に反対という理由でした。

その後のバーナンキ会見では、

前向きな発言が連発。

利上げを匂わせる発言も飛び出しました。

常識的、ファンダメンタル分析的に考えると、

FOMC金利では、株、ドル相場、ともにさほど動かず、

バーナンキ議長会見で、

株　上昇

ドル　上昇

となるのが自然に思えます。

では、この材料を受けて、机上の空論ならぬ現実のマーケットはどのように動いたのでしょうか？

↓のチャートを見る前に１分間想像してみてください。

・NYダウ　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ドル円　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ユーロドル　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ユーロ円　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ポンドドル　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ポンド円　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・原油　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・金　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？ 　

日本時間2012/3/14　　3:15ごろ発表

Press Release
　
Release Date: March 13, 2012

For immediate release

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January suggests that the economy has been expanding moderately. Labor market conditions have improved further; the unemployment rate has declined notably in recent months but remains elevated. Household spending and business fixed investment have continued to advance. The housing sector remains depressed. Inflation has been subdued in recent months, although prices of crude oil and gasoline have increased lately. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects moderate economic growth over coming quarters and consequently anticipates that the unemployment rate will decline gradually toward levels that the Committee judges to be consistent with its dual mandate. Strains in global financial markets have eased, though they continue to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook. The recent increase in oil and gasoline prices will push up inflation temporarily, but the Committee anticipates that subsequently inflation will run at or below the rate that it judges most consistent with its dual mandate.

To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, the Committee expects to maintain a highly accommodative stance for monetary policy. In particular, the Committee decided today to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that economic conditions--including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run--are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through late 2014.

The Committee also decided to continue its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of securities as announced in September. The Committee is maintaining its existing policies of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. The Committee will regularly review the size and composition of its securities holdings and is prepared to adjust those holdings as appropriate to promote a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Dennis P. Lockhart; Sandra Pianalto; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Daniel K. Tarullo; John C. Williams; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against the action was Jeffrey M. Lacker, who does not anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate through late 2014.

FRB: Press Release--Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement--March 13, 2012
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20120313a.htm

市場予想どおりの実質ゼロ金利据え置きでした。

そして、前回と同様、例の2014年終盤まで異例の低金利を続けることが明記されました。

そしてこれも前回と同様、反対票を投じたのは１名で、理由は、

2014年云々の記載に反対という理由でした。

常識的、ファンダメンタル分析的に考えると、

思いっきり何のサプライズもなく、

・株　「材料織り込み済み」でほとんど動かず！　

・ドル　 「材料織り込み済み」でほとんど動かず！

となるのが自然に思えます。

では、この材料を受けて、机上の空論ならぬ現実のマーケットはどのように動いたのでしょうか？

↓のチャートを見る前に１分間想像してみてください。

・NYダウ　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ドル円　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ユーロドル　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ユーロ円　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ポンドドル　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ポンド円　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・原油　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・金　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？ 　

日本時間2012/1/26　　2：30ごろ発表

Release Date: January 25, 2012

For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December suggests that the economy has been expanding moderately, notwithstanding some slowing in global growth. While indicators point to some further improvement in overall labor market conditions, the unemployment rate remains elevated. Household spending has continued to advance, but growth in business fixed investment has slowed, and the housing sector remains depressed. Inflation has been subdued in recent months, and longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects economic growth over coming quarters to be modest and consequently anticipates that the unemployment rate will decline only gradually toward levels that the Committee judges to be consistent with its dual mandate. Strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook. The Committee also anticipates that over coming quarters, inflation will run at levels at or below those consistent with the Committee's dual mandate.

To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with the dual mandate, the Committee expects to maintain a highly accommodative stance for monetary policy.　 In particular, the Committee decided today to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that economic conditions--including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run--are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through late 2014.

The Committee also decided to continue its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of securities as announced in September. The Committee is maintaining its existing policies of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. The Committee will regularly review the size and composition of its securities holdings and is prepared to adjust those holdings as appropriate to promote a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Dennis P. Lockhart; Sandra Pianalto; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Daniel K. Tarullo; John C. Williams; and Janet L. Yellen.　 Voting against the action was Jeffrey M. Lacker, who preferred to omit the description of the time period over which economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate.

FRB: Press Release--Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement--January 25, 2012

市場予想どおりの実質ゼロ金利据え置きでした。

そして、なんと声明文でいきなり、

2014年終盤まで異例の低金利を続けることが明記されました。

サプライズの悪材料です。

（今までは2013年半ばまで、と表記されていた。）

そして前回と同じく、反対票を投じたのは１名で、理由は、

2014年云々の説明を省略すべき、という理由でした。

常識的、ファンダメンタル分析的に考えると、

・株　上昇！（利下げ方向は株の好材料）

・ドル　暴落！（利下げ方向はドルの悪材料）

となるのが自然に思えます。

では、この材料を受けて、机上の空論ならぬ現実のマーケットはどのように動いたのでしょうか？

↓のチャートを見る前に１分間想像してみてください。

・NYダウ　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ドル円　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ユーロドル　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ユーロ円　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ポンドドル　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ポンド円　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・原油　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・金　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？ 　

日本時間2011/12/14　　4：15発表 （実際には3分フライングして4：12発表）

Release Date: December 13, 2011

For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in November suggests that the economy has been expanding moderately, notwithstanding some apparent slowing in global growth. While indicators point to some improvement in overall labor market conditions, the unemployment rate remains elevated. Household spending has continued to advance, but business fixed investment appears to be increasing less rapidly and the housing sector remains depressed. Inflation has moderated since earlier in the year, and longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee continues to expect a moderate pace of economic growth over coming quarters and consequently anticipates that the unemployment rate will decline only gradually toward levels that the Committee judges to be consistent with its dual mandate. Strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook. The Committee also anticipates that inflation will settle, over coming quarters, at levels at or below those consistent with the Committee's dual mandate. However, the Committee will continue to pay close attention to the evolution of inflation and inflation expectations.

To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with the dual mandate, the Committee decided today to continue its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of securities as announced in September. The Committee is maintaining its existing policies of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. The Committee will regularly review the size and composition of its securities holdings and is prepared to adjust those holdings as appropriate.

The Committee also decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that economic conditions--including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run--are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through mid-2013.

The Committee will continue to assess the economic outlook in light of incoming information and is prepared to employ its tools to promote a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Richard W. Fisher; Narayana Kocherlakota; Charles I. Plosser; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against the action was Charles L. Evans, who supported additional policy accommodation at this time.

FRB: Press Release--Federal Reserve Board issues FOMC statement --December 13, 2011　　　

市場予想どおりの実質ゼロ金利据え置きでした。

また、声明文で前回に引き続き、

2013年半ばまで異例の低金利を続けることが明記されました。

そして前回と同じく、反対票を投じたのは１名で、理由は、

もっと緩和的な施策（利下げ方向）をすべきということでした。

常識的、ファンダメンタル分析的に考えると、

新しい材料は殆ど無く、材料織り込み済みで

・株　動かず！（どちらかというと下方向）

・ドル　動かず！（どちらかというと下方向）

となるのが自然に思えます。

では、この材料を受けて、机上の空論ならぬ現実のマーケットはどのように動いたのでしょうか？

↓のチャートを見る前に１分間想像してみてください。

・NYダウ　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ドル円　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ユーロドル　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ユーロ円　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ポンドドル　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ポンド円　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・原油　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・金　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？ 　

日本時間2011/11/3　01：30発表

Release Date: November 2, 2011

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September indicates that economic growth strengthened somewhat in the third quarter, reflecting in part a reversal of the temporary factors that had weighed on growth earlier in the year. Nonetheless, recent indicators point to continuing weakness in overall labor market conditions, and the unemployment rate remains elevated. Household spending has increased at a somewhat faster pace in recent months. Business investment in equipment and software has continued to expand, but investment in nonresidential structures is still weak, and the housing sector remains depressed. Inflation appears to have moderated since earlier in the year as prices of energy and some commodities have declined from their peaks. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee continues to expect a moderate pace of economic growth over coming quarters and consequently anticipates that the unemployment rate will decline only gradually toward levels that the Committee judges to be consistent with its dual mandate. Moreover, there are significant downside risks to the economic outlook, including strains in global financial markets. The Committee also anticipates that inflation will settle, over coming quarters, at levels at or below those consistent with the Committee's dual mandate as the effects of past energy and other commodity price increases dissipate further. However, the Committee will continue to pay close attention to the evolution of inflation and inflation expectations.

To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with the dual mandate, the Committee decided today to continue its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of securities as announced in September. The Committee is maintaining its existing policies of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. The Committee will regularly review the size and composition of its securities holdings and is prepared to adjust those holdings as appropriate.

The Committee also decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that economic conditions--including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run--are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through mid-2013.

The Committee will continue to assess the economic outlook in light of incoming information and is prepared to employ its tools to promote a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Richard W. Fisher; Narayana Kocherlakota; Charles I. Plosser; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against the action was Charles L. Evans, who supported additional policy accommodation at this time.（反対票１名）

FRB: Press Release--Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement--November 2, 2011

FRB: Press Release--Federal Reserve Board and Federal Open Market Committee release economic projections from the November 1-2 FOMC meeting--November 2, 2011　　　　

日本時間　同日03:15ごろ

FRB議長　バーナンキ会見

「経済拡大のペース、いら立つほど遅くなる公算。」
「成長の緩やかなペース、現在の住宅市場の低迷・信用収縮などの要素を反映。」
「欧州情勢を緊密に注視し続ける。」
「インフレ、一時的要因の後退により緩和されたもよう。」
「米経済の現状に満足していない。」
「格差解消の最善策は新規雇用創出。」
「超低金利は2013年半ば以降も続く可能性ある。」
「必要になればMBS購入の可能性はある。」
「利上げ検討にあたりどの程度まで状況が一段と明らかになる必要があるか協議した。」
「景気回復の抑制は想定以上。」
「デフレの問題は回避した。」
「物価の安定を成し遂げている。」

市場予想どおりの実質ゼロ金利据え置きでした。

また、声明文で前回に引き続き、

2013年半ばまで異例の低金利を続けることが明記されました。

そして今回は今までと違い、反対票を投じたのは１名で、理由は、

もっと緩和的な施策（利下げ方向）をすべきということでした。

そしてその後のバーナンキ会見では、

FOMCおよびバーナンキが米経済についてかなり悲観的な見方をしている

ということが明らかになりました。

常識的、ファンダメンタル分析的に考えると、

・株　暴落

・ドル　暴落

となるのが自然に思えます。

では、この材料を受けて、机上の空論ならぬ現実のマーケットはどのように動いたのでしょうか？

↓のチャートを見る前に１分間想像してみてください。

・NYダウ　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ドル円　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ユーロドル　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ユーロ円　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ポンドドル　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ポンド円　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・原油　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・金　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？ 　

日本時間2011/09/22　03：15発表

Press Release
　
Release Date: September 21, 2011

For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in August indicates that economic growth remains slow. Recent indicators point to continuing weakness in overall labor market conditions, and the unemployment rate remains elevated. Household spending has been increasing at only a modest pace in recent months despite some recovery in sales of motor vehicles as supply-chain disruptions eased. Investment in nonresidential structures is still weak, and the housing sector remains depressed. However, business investment in equipment and software continues to expand. Inflation appears to have moderated since earlier in the year as prices of energy and some commodities have declined from their peaks. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee continues to expect some pickup in the pace of recovery over coming quarters but anticipates that the unemployment rate will decline only gradually toward levels that the Committee judges to be consistent with its dual mandate. Moreover, there are significant downside risks to the economic outlook, including strains in global financial markets. The Committee also anticipates that inflation will settle, over coming quarters, at levels at or below those consistent with the Committee's dual mandate as the effects of past energy and other commodity price increases dissipate further. However, the Committee will continue to pay close attention to the evolution of inflation and inflation expectations.

To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with the dual mandate, the Committee decided today to extend the average maturity of its holdings of securities. The Committee intends to purchase, by the end of June 2012, $400 billion of Treasury securities with remaining maturities of 6 years to 30 years and to sell an equal amount of Treasury securities with remaining maturities of 3 years or less. This program should put downward pressure on longer-term interest rates and help make broader financial conditions more accommodative. The Committee will regularly review the size and composition of its securities holdings and is prepared to adjust those holdings as appropriate.

To help support conditions in mortgage markets, the Committee will now reinvest principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities. In addition, the Committee will maintain its existing policy of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction.

The Committee also decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that economic conditions--including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run--are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through mid-2013.

The Committee discussed the range of policy tools available to promote a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability. It will continue to assess the economic outlook in light of incoming information and is prepared to employ its tools as appropriate.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Charles L. Evans; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against the action were Richard W. Fisher, Narayana Kocherlakota, and Charles I. Plosser, who did not support additional policy accommodation at this time.

FRB: Press Release--Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement--September 21, 2011

市場予想どおりの実質ゼロ金利据え置きでした。

そして、FOMCは追加緩和策として、長期国債を4000億ドル購入し、

同時に保有している短期国債を同量の4000億ドル売却して、

保有米国債の平均償還期限を延長することで長期金利を押し下げると発表。

また、声明文で前回に引き続き、

2013年半ばまで異例の低金利を続けることが明記されました。

そして今回も、FOMCメンバーのうち例の３名が、追加的な金融緩和を支持できないとして

反対票を投じました。

常識的、ファンダメンタル分析的に考えると、

・株　乱高下ののち、もとの水準に（株では利下げは好材料）

・ドル　大暴落

となるのが自然に思えます。

では、この材料を受けて、机上の空論ならぬ現実のマーケットはどのように動いたのでしょうか？

↓のチャートを見る前に１分間想像してみてください。

・NYダウ　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ドル円　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ユーロドル　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ユーロ円　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ポンドドル　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ポンド円　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・原油　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・金　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？ 　

日本時間2011/08/10　03：15発表

Press Release
　
Release Date: August 9, 2011

For immediate release

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June indicates that economic growth so far this year has been considerably slower than the Committee had expected.　 Indicators suggest a deterioration in overall labor market conditions in recent months, and the unemployment rate has moved up.　 Household spending has flattened out, investment in nonresidential structures is still weak, and the housing sector remains depressed.　 However, business investment in equipment and software continues to expand.　 Temporary factors, including the damping effect of higher food and energy prices on consumer purchasing power and spending as well as supply chain disruptions associated with the tragic events in Japan, appear to account for only some of the recent weakness in economic activity.　 Inflation picked up earlier in the year, mainly reflecting higher prices for some commodities and imported goods, as well as the supply chain disruptions.　 More recently, inflation has moderated as prices of energy and some commodities have declined from their earlier peaks.　 Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability.　 The Committee now expects a somewhat slower pace of recovery over coming quarters than it did at the time of the previous meeting and anticipates that the unemployment rate will decline only gradually toward levels that the Committee judges to be consistent with its dual mandate.　 Moreover, downside risks to the economic outlook have increased. The Committee also anticipates that inflation will settle, over coming quarters, at levels at or below those consistent with the Committee's dual mandate as the effects of past energy and other commodity price increases dissipate further.　 However, the Committee will continue to pay close attention to the evolution of inflation and inflation expectations.

To promote the ongoing economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate, the Committee decided today to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent.　 The Committee currently anticipates that economic conditions--including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run--are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rateat least through mid-2013.　 The Committee also will maintain its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its securities holdings.　 The Committee will regularly review the size and composition of its securities holdings and is prepared to adjust those holdings as appropriate.

The Committee discussed the range of policy tools available to promote a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability.　 It will continue to assess the economic outlook in light of incoming information and is prepared to employ these tools as appropriate.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Charles L. Evans; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Janet L. Yellen.

Voting against the action were: Richard W. Fisher, Narayana Kocherlakota, and Charles I. Plosser, who would have preferred to continue to describe economic conditions as likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate for an extended period.（これが従来の表記）

FRB: Press Release--FOMC statement--August 9, 2011

市場予想どおりの実質ゼロ金利据え置きでした。

が、声明文で、なんと

2013年半ばまで、金利を異例の低水準に据え置く！

ことが明記されました。

この点について、FOMCメンバーのうち３名が反対したようです。

常識的、ファンダメンタル分析的に考えると、

・株　乱高下ののち、もとの水準に（株では利下げは好材料、利上げは悪材料なのが定石）

・ドル　大暴落

となるのが自然に思えます。

では、この材料を受けて、机上の空論ならぬ現実のマーケットはどのように動いたのでしょうか？

↓のチャートを見る前に１分間想像してみてください。

・NYダウ　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ドル円　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ユーロドル　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ユーロ円　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ポンドドル　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ポンド円　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・原油　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・金　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？ 　

日本時間　7/13（水） 　03:00 公開

FRB: FOMC Minutes, June 21-22, 2011

A joint meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System was held in the offices of the Board of Governors in Washington, D.C., on Tuesday, June 21, 2011, at 10:30 a.m. and continued on Wednesday, June 22, 2011, at 9:00 a.m.

PRESENT:
Ben Bernanke, Chairman
William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman
Elizabeth Duke
Charles L. Evans
Richard W. Fisher
Narayana Kocherlakota
Charles I. Plosser
Sarah Bloom Raskin
Daniel K. Tarullo
Janet L. Yellen

日本時間2011/06/23　01:30発表

Press Release
　
Release Date: June 22, 2011

For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in April indicates that the economic recovery is continuing at a moderate pace, though somewhat more slowly than the Committee had expected.　 Also, recent labor market indicators have been weaker than anticipated.　 The slower pace of the recovery reflects in part factors that are likely to be temporary, including the damping effect of higher food and energy prices on consumer purchasing power and spending as well as supply chain disruptions associated with the tragic events in Japan.　 Household spending and business investment in equipment and software continue to expand.　 However, investment in nonresidential structures is still weak, and the housing sector continues to be depressed.　 Inflation has picked up in recent months, mainly reflecting higher prices for some commodities and imported goods, as well as the recent supply chain disruptions.　 However, longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability.　 The unemployment rate remains elevated; however, the Committee expects the pace of recovery to pick up over coming quarters and the unemployment rate to resume its gradual decline toward levels that the Committee judges to be consistent with its dual mandate.　 Inflation has moved up recently, but the Committee anticipates that inflation will subside to levels at or below those consistent with the Committee's dual mandate as the effects of past energy and other commodity price increases dissipate.　 However, the Committee will continue to pay close attention to the evolution of inflation and inflation expectations.　

To promote the ongoing economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate, the Committee decided today to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent.　（金利据え置き） The Committee continues to anticipate that economic conditions--including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run--are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate for an extended period.　 The Committee will complete its purchases of $600 billion of longer-term Treasury securities by the end of this month and will maintain its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its securities holdings.　 The Committee will regularly review the size and composition of its securities holdings and is prepared to adjust those holdings as appropriate.　

The Committee will monitor the economic outlook and financial developments and will act as needed to best foster maximum employment and price stability.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Charles L. Evans; Richard W. Fisher; Narayana Kocherlakota; Charles I. Plosser; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Janet L. Yellen.

FRB: Press Release--FOMC statement--June 22, 2011
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20110622a.htm

日本時間2011/06/23　03:15ごろ

FRB議長　バーナンキ会見

「失業率の低下は苛立つほど弱い。」
「今後数ヵ月間でゆっくり低下すると予測。」
「どの程度の期間、巨額に債券を保有するかはコミットしない。」
「2012年に向けて景気は回復すると確信。」
「しかし、ペースは緩やか。」
「どの程度減速するか正確な予想はない。」
「世界経済はギリシャ債務危機のリスク。」
「景気減速理由の幾つかは長期的に持続する可能性。」
「経済成長妨げる逆風要因のいくつかは一層持続する可能性。」
「ギリシャ債務問題に関し、欧州当局者と緊密な意思疎通を図っている。」
「ギリシャの状況、経済が直面している複数の金融リスクの一つ。」
「財政赤字は長期的に削減するのが望ましい。」
「短期的に急激な財政緊縮は避けたい。」
「短期的な歳出削減は雇用創出につながらない。」
「インフレターゲット導入の法的権限を有する。」
「FRBの立場は昨年8月から変化した。」
「ただ、インフレターゲット導入は差し迫った課題ではない。」
「欧州の不秩序なデフォルトは世界経済に大きく影響。」
「長期間の意味は少なくとも2から3回の会合。」
「政策当局者はなお需給ギャップが大きいと判断。」
「緩和解除時期を言及するのは得策ではない。」
「今年下期、来年序盤の回復は、今年の現状よりは加速する。」
「必要ならば更に緩和の手段はある。」
「一段の資産購入や準備預金金利引き下げ。」
「米MMF、欧州銀に対する非常に著しいエクスポージャー抱える。」
「自身の予想はFOMCコンセンサスと一致、極端な見方はない。」

市場予想どおりの実質ゼロ金利据え置きでした。

また、従来通り、「長期間に渡って政策金利を異例の低水準で据え置く」の文言がしっかりと明記されました。

（continues to anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period.）

何のサプライズもありません。

その後のバーナンキ会見では、

米景気について基本的に前向きな発言がちらほら見られるとともに、

欧州のソブリンリスクについての言及も目立ちました。

常識的、ファンダメンタル分析的に考えると、

FOMC金利発表では材料織り込み済みで動きようがなく、

バーナンキ会見で乱高下の後、ややドル高、

となるのが自然であるように思えます。

では、この材料を受けて、机上の空論ならぬ現実のマーケットはどのように動いたのでしょうか？

↓のチャートを見る前に１分間想像してみてください。

・NYダウ　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ドル円　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ユーロドル　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ユーロ円　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ポンドドル　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・ポンド円　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・原油　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？

・金　の値動き　→　上昇？下落？ 　

日本時間　5/19（木） 　03:00 公開

FRB: FOMC Minutes, April 26-27, 2011

Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee
April 26-27, 2011

FOMC Minutes | Summary of Economic Projections　

A joint meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System was held in the offices of the Board of Governors in Washington, D.C., on Tuesday, April 26, 2011, at 10:30 a.m. and continued on Wednesday, April 27, 2011, at 8:30 a.m.
PRESENT:
Ben Bernanke, Chairman
William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman
Elizabeth Duke
Charles L. Evans
Richard W. Fisher
Narayana Kocherlakota
Charles I. Plosser
Sarah Bloom Raskin
Daniel K. Tarullo
Janet L. Yellen