FOMC声明 日本時間 2015/12/17 （木） 04:00発表

※前回のFOMC声明はこちら

Press Release

Release Date: December 16, 2015

For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in October suggests that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace. Household spending and business fixed investment have been increasing at solid rates in recent months, and the housing sector has improved further; however, net exports have been soft. A range of recent labor market indicators, including ongoing job gains and declining unemployment, shows further improvement and confirms that underutilization of labor resources has diminished appreciably since early this year. Inflation has continued to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective, partly reflecting declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; some survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have edged down.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee currently expects that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will continue to expand at a moderate pace and labor market indicators will continue to strengthen. Overall, taking into account domestic and international developments, the Committee sees the risks to the outlook for both economic activity and the labor market as balanced. Inflation is expected to rise to 2 percent over the medium term as the transitory effects of declines in energy and import prices dissipate and the labor market strengthens further. The Committee continues to monitor inflation developments closely.

The Committee judges that there has been considerable improvement in labor market conditions this year, and it is reasonably confident that inflation will rise, over the medium term, to its 2 percent objective. Given the economic outlook, and recognizing the time it takes for policy actions to affect future economic outcomes, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1/4 to 1/2 percent. (0.25-0.50%に利上げ) The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative after this increase, thereby supporting further improvement in labor market conditions and a return to 2 percent inflation.

In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. In light of the current shortfall of inflation from 2 percent, the Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected progress toward its inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant only gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.

The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction, and it anticipates doing so until normalization of the level of the federal funds rate is well under way. This policy, by keeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Charles L. Evans; Stanley Fischer; Jeffrey M. Lacker; Dennis P. Lockhart; Jerome H. Powell; Daniel K. Tarullo; and John C. Williams.（全会一致で利上げ賛成）

FRB: Press Release--Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement--December 16, 2015
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20151216a.htm

日本時間4：30ごろから イエレン会見

「正常化の過程は緩やかになる。」
「労働市場の改善余地引き続き残る。賃金は安定的に上昇。」
「消費拡大がぜい弱性を相殺。」
「目標以下のインフレはエネルギー下落を反映。」
「住宅投資は前年よりも速いペースで増加。」
「ドル高がインフレを圧迫。海外情勢が成長にリスク及ぼす。」
「最初の利上げ開始を過大評価すべきではない。」
「より強力な成長、または、急速なインフレなら大幅な利上げが適切。逆なら利上げは緩やか。」(あくまでも目線は利上げ方向)
「政策は緩和的に解除しなければオーバーシュートの可能性あると認識。」
「経済に引き続き緩み存在。」
「ゼロ金利で衝撃への対処余地少ないことを懸念。」
「再投資を極めて急速に停止することにはならない。」

前々から予告されていたとおり、12月にゼロ金利解除、利上げとなりました。

かなり前から予告されていたことであり、言うほどのサプライズは無いはずです。

ただ、グローバル的な状況を見ると、

経済ボロボロで、貨幣をジャブジャブ刷って刷って刷りまくり（＆戦争の気配）の欧州、日本と比較すると、相対的には、米国一人勝ちの様相です。

また、さらに今後利上げが継続されるのかについてですが、

イエレン会見では、あくまでも「利上げ目線継続」であることが示されました。

ファンダメンタル分析的に考えれば、

FOMC声明で壮絶な乱高下をしたあと、

結局米国しかまともなとこないじゃん、となり、じわりとドル高になる

と考えるのが自然です。

少なくとも、ドル安になる材料ではありません。

これを受けてマーケットはどのように反応したのでしょうか。

↓のチャートを見る前に１分間想像してみてください。

・NYダウ の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ドル円 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ユーロドル の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ユーロ円 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ポンドドル の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ポンド円 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・原油 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・金 の値動き → 上昇？下落？