日本時間2011/01/27 4:15発表


Release Date: January 26, 2011


For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December confirms that the economic recovery is continuing, though at a rate that has been insufficient to bring about a significant improvement in labor market conditions. Growth in household spending picked up late last year, but remains constrained by high unemployment, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Business spending on equipment and software is rising, while investment in nonresidential structures is still weak. Employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls. The housing sector continues to be depressed. Although commodity prices have risen, longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable, and measures of underlying inflation have been trending downward.


Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. Currently, the unemployment rate is elevated, and measures of underlying inflation are somewhat low, relative to levels that the Committee judges to be consistent, over the longer run, with its dual mandate. Although the Committee anticipates a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability, progress toward its objectives has been disappointingly slow.


To promote a stronger pace of economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate, the Committee decided today to continue expanding its holdings of securities as announced in November. In particular, the Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its securities holdings and intends to purchase $600 billion of longer-term Treasury securities by the end of the second quarter of 2011. The Committee will regularly review the pace of its securities purchases and the overall size of the asset-purchase program in light of incoming information and will adjust the program as needed to best foster maximum employment and price stability.


The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate for an extended period.


The Committee will continue to monitor the economic outlook and financial developments and will employ its policy tools as necessary to support the economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate.


Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Charles L. Evans; Richard W. Fisher; Narayana Kocherlakota; Charles I. Plosser; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Daniel K. Tarullo; Kevin M. Warsh; and Janet L. Yellen.


※今まで反対票を投じて利上げを主張してきたホーニング氏(Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig)はFOMC投票メンバーから外されました。


FRB: Press Release--FOMC statement--January 26, 2011 http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20110126a.htm 


市場予想どおりの実質ゼロ金利据え置きでした。


また、従来通り、「長期間に渡って政策金利を異例の低水準で据え置く」の文言がしっかりと明記されました。


(continues to anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period.)


何のサプライズもありません。


   


常識的、ファンダメンタル分析的に考えると、


織り込み済みとなって動きようがないようにも思えます。


   


では、この材料を受けて、机上の空論ならぬ現実のマーケットはどのように動いたのでしょうか?


   


↓のチャートを見る前に1分間想像してみてください。


・NYダウ の値動き → 上昇?下落?


・ドル円 の値動き → 上昇?下落?


・ユーロドル の値動き → 上昇?下落?


・ユーロ円 の値動き → 上昇?下落?


・ポンドドル の値動き → 上昇?下落?


・ポンド円 の値動き → 上昇?下落?


・原油 の値動き → 上昇?下落?


・金 の値動き → 上昇?下落?  


    

1分足 以下のチャートでは20:15が日本時間4:15  

fxfxg6325.jpg

初動はドル安でその後乱高下モード

   

5分足  

fxfxg6326.jpg

狂ったような乱高下を制したのは、結局、ドル安軍団。

興味深いのは、ドル円とドルスイスが完全に同じ波形。これは何を意味するのか。

ドル円は今までは他のドルストレートと違う独自の値動きをすることが多かったが、

今回はグローバルなドルの需給とがっちりシンクロ。

「何か」が水面下で動きつつあるようだ。

  

※各国政策金利一覧

201101.png

データ by セントラル短資