FOMC声明 日本時間 2017年6月15日（木）03:00 発表
※前回のFOMC声明はこちら
Press Release
June 14, 2017
Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in May indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising moderately so far this year. Job gains have moderated but have been solid, on average, since the beginning of the year, and the unemployment rate has declined. Household spending has picked up in recent months, and business fixed investment has continued to expand. On a 12-month basis, inflation has declined recently and, like the measure excluding food and energy prices, is running somewhat below 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee continues to expect that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, and labor market conditions will strengthen somewhat further. Inflation on a 12-month basis is expected to remain somewhat below 2 percent in the near term but to stabilize around the Committee's 2 percent objective over the medium term. Near term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced, but the Committee is monitoring inflation developments closely.
In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1 to 1-1/4 percent.(市場予想通りの0.25%利上げ) The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting some further strengthening in labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation.
In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected inflation developments relative to its symmetric inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.
The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. The Committee currently expects to begin implementing a balance sheet normalization program this year, provided that the economy evolves broadly as anticipated. This program, which would gradually reduce the Federal Reserve's securities holdings by decreasing reinvestment of principal payments from those securities, is described in the accompanying addendum to the Committee's Policy Normalization Principles and Plans.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Charles L. Evans; Stanley Fischer; Patrick Harker; Robert S. Kaplan; and Jerome H. Powell. Voting against the action was Neel Kashkari, who preferred at this meeting to maintain the existing target range for the federal funds rate.（反対１名、金利据え置きを主張）
The Fed - Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20170614a.htm
3:30頃から イエレン会見
「適切な時期になれば保有資産の正常化に着手。」（株安、ドル高材料）
「コアインフレは小幅に低下した。」
「引続き緩やかな利上げが正当化される。」
「経済は我々の目標に向かって進展。」
「引続き緩やかな成長を見込む。」
「バランスシート縮小を年内に開始する。」
「資産縮小の上限設定は金利変動を抑制へ。」
「資産縮小の終了は恐らく数年先に。」
「数回のインフレ指標に過剰反応しないことが重要」
「きょうのＣＰＩ、多くの分野で弱さ示した。」
「雇用は強い。」
「経済は回復を示している。」
「賃金の伸びが依然として低い。」
「インフレが上向いた証拠はない。」
「保有資産の縮小は比較的早期の実行あり得る。」
FOMC声明については、
市場予想どおりの0.25%利上げ（0.75-1.00% → 1.00-1.25%）
となりました。
利上げ自体は市場予想どおりでサプライズはありません。
※過去のFOMCまとめはこちら
内容については、
インフレ状況は予想を若干下回るも、
労働市場動向は堅調で、
あくまでも利上げ目線のようです。
その後のイエレン会見でも、
基本姿勢は利上げ目線であることが明確で、
さらに、今までの量的緩和で吸収した資産を今度は市場に還流することを発表しました。（米ドルを回収、マネタリーベースの縮小）
これは教科書的には株安材料＆ドル高材料となります。
グローバル的な状況を見ると、
経済ボロボロで貨幣をジャブジャブ刷って刷って刷りまくり（＆戦争の気配）の欧州、日本と比較すると、
相対的には、米国一人勝ち（圧勝）の様相です。
ファンダメンタル分析的に考えれば、
・株安（利上げは株には悪材料）
・ドル高（金利上昇期待）
と考えるのが自然です。
少なくとも、ドル安になる材料ではないように思えます。
これを受けてマーケットはどのように反応したのでしょうか。
↓のチャートを見る前に１分間想像してみてください。
・NYダウ の値動き → 上昇？下落？
・ドル円 の値動き → 上昇？下落？
・ユーロドル の値動き → 上昇？下落？
・ユーロ円 の値動き → 上昇？下落？
・ポンドドル の値動き → 上昇？下落？
・ポンド円 の値動き → 上昇？下落？
・原油 の値動き → 上昇？下落？
・金 の値動き → 上昇？下落？
