FOMC声明 日本時間 2016年11月3日（木） 03:00発表
※前回のFOMC声明はこちら
Press Release
Release Date: November 2, 2016
For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and growth of economic activity has picked up from the modest pace seen in the first half of this year. Although the unemployment rate is little changed in recent months, job gains have been solid. Household spending has been rising moderately but business fixed investment has remained soft. Inflation has increased somewhat since earlier this year but is still below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation have moved up but remain low; most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance, in recent months.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and labor market conditions will strengthen somewhat further. Inflation is expected to rise to 2 percent over the medium term as the transitory effects of past declines in energy and import prices dissipate and the labor market strengthens further. Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced. The Committee continues to closely monitor inflation indicators and global economic and financial developments.
Against this backdrop, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1/4 to 1/2 percent.（金利据え置き） The Committee judges that the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has continued to strengthen but decided, for the time being, to wait for some further evidence of continued progress toward its objectives. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting further improvement in labor market conditions and a return to 2 percent inflation.
In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. In light of the current shortfall of inflation from 2 percent, the Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected progress toward its inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant only gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.
The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction, and it anticipates doing so until normalization of the level of the federal funds rate is well under way. This policy, by keeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; James Bullard; Stanley Fischer; Jerome H. Powell; Eric Rosengren; and Daniel K. Tarullo. Voting against the action were: Esther L. George and Loretta J. Mester, each of whom preferred at this meeting to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1/2 to 3/4 percent.（利上げ主張2名。←前回は3名だった。）
FRB: Press Release--Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement--November 2, 2016
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20161102a.htm
イエレン会見は今回はナシ
FOMC声明については、
市場予想どおり、今回は金利据え置きとなりました。
※過去のFOMCまとめはこちら
内容については、
インフレの低調さをあげつつも、
労働市場は堅調で、あくまでも景気見通しは悪くない、という認識のようです。
また、今回は2名の委員が利上げを主張しました。
前回は3名の委員が利上げを主張していたので、若干後退のようにも見えます。（実際は、今回据え置き賛成に回ったローゼングレン・ボストン連銀総裁は、事前に、12月に利上げをすべきと発言していた。また、市場予想も元々12月利上げで、特に後退というわけではない。問題はマーケットがこれをどう受け取るか。）
今回金利は据え置きでしたが、利上げ秒読み前という状況です。
グローバル的な状況を見ると、
経済ボロボロで貨幣をジャブジャブ刷って刷って刷りまくり（＆戦争の気配）の欧州、日本と比較すると、
相対的には、米国一人勝ちの様相です。
ファンダメンタル分析的に考えれば、
・株高（利上げ見送り）
・ドル高（金利上昇期待）
と考えるのが自然です。
少なくとも、特にドル安になる材料ではないように思えます。
これを受けてマーケットはどのように反応したのでしょうか。
↓のチャートを見る前に１分間想像してみてください。
・NYダウ の値動き → 上昇？下落？
・ドル円 の値動き → 上昇？下落？
・ユーロドル の値動き → 上昇？下落？
・ユーロ円 の値動き → 上昇？下落？
・ポンドドル の値動き → 上昇？下落？
・ポンド円 の値動き → 上昇？下落？
・原油 の値動き → 上昇？下落？
・金 の値動き → 上昇？下落？
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