日本時間 2012/09/14 （金） 01:30ごろ発表
Press Release
Release Date: September 13, 2012
For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in August suggests that economic activity has continued to expand at a moderate pace in recent months. Growth in employment has been slow, and the unemployment rate remains elevated. Household spending has continued to advance, but growth in business fixed investment appears to have slowed. The housing sector has shown some further signs of improvement, albeit from a depressed level. Inflation has been subdued, although the prices of some key commodities have increased recently. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee is concerned that, without further policy accommodation, economic growth might not be strong enough to generate sustained improvement in labor market conditions. Furthermore, strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook. The Committee also anticipates that inflation over the medium term likely would run at or below its 2 percent objective.
To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, the Committee agreed today to increase policy accommodation by purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month.（いわゆるQE3実施決定！月400億ドルのMBS買い入れ！ドルをジャブジャブ刷りまくり！） The Committee also will continue through the end of the year its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of securities as announced in June, and it is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities. These actions, which together will increase the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities by about $85 billion each month through the end of the year, should put downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative.
The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months. If the outlook for the labor market does not improve substantially, the Committee will continue its purchases of agency mortgage-backed securities, undertake additional asset purchases, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate until such improvement is achieved in a context of price stability. In determining the size, pace, and composition of its asset purchases, the Committee will, as always, take appropriate account of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases.
To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee expects that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the economic recovery strengthens. In particular, the Committee also decided today to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate are likely to be warranted at least through mid-2015.（2015年半ばまで異例の低金利を続けるとの宣言！2014年から延長！）
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Dennis P. Lockhart; Sandra Pianalto; Jerome H. Powell; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Jeremy C. Stein; Daniel K. Tarullo; John C. Williams; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against the action was Jeffrey M. Lacker, who opposed additional asset purchases and preferred to omit the description of the time period over which exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate are likely to be warranted. （いつもの人が反対）
FRB: Press Release--Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement--September 13, 2012
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20120913a.htm
3:00ごろ FOMC経済見通し発表
3:15ごろ バーナンキ議長会見
「雇用情勢を非常に懸念。」
「金融政策は万能薬ではない。」
「景気回復は不十分。」
「新MBS購入は住宅市場をサポート。 」
「欧州情勢や財政で逆風にさらされている。」
「FRBの資産購入は財政支出と同じではない。FRBの資産購入が財政赤字削減への強い支援となる。」
「インフレはFRB目標の2％付近に留まっている。」
「引き締め政策に急がず、回復がしっかりと根付くまで時間かける。」(利上げに慎重姿勢)
「失業率低下で一段の進展確認する必要。」
「景気が弱まれば証券購入をもっと増やす。」（ドルはジャンジャンいくらでも刷りますよ）
「購入の総額は景気がどうなるかで決まる。」
「政治的、財政政策的な不透明感が雇用と設備投資に影響。」
「不透明感が早く解消されればされるほど恩恵を受ける。」
「労働参加率の低下は一部景気循環的な要因による。」
「職探しをあきらめたり、やる気なくして離れた人もいる。」
市場予想どおりの実質ゼロ金利据え置きでしたが、
まずQE3実施宣言、しかも、労働市場が改善されるまで資産購入を続けますよ＝ドルをジャブジャブ刷り続けますよ宣言！
次いで、なんと2015年までの異例の低金利継続宣言！が来ました。
驚いた人が多いと思います。
その後のバーナンキ会見では、
前回と同様、基本的に悲観的な内容となりました。
常識的、ファンダメンタル分析的に考えると、
FOMC金利で、まずドルが大暴落、
株は低金利継続の安心感とドルジャブジャブで上昇、
となるのが自然に思えます。
では、この材料を受けて、机上の空論ならぬ現実のマーケットはどのように動いたのでしょうか？
↓のチャートを見る前に１分間想像してみてください。
・NYダウ の値動き → 上昇？下落？
・ドル円 の値動き → 上昇？下落？
・ユーロドル の値動き → 上昇？下落？
・ユーロ円 の値動き → 上昇？下落？
・ポンドドル の値動き → 上昇？下落？
・ポンド円 の値動き → 上昇？下落？
・原油 の値動き → 上昇？下落？
・金 の値動き → 上昇？下落？
