FOMC声明 日本時間 2018年2月1日（木）04:00発表

※前回のFOMC声明はこちら

Press Release
 

January 31, 2018

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement

For release at 2:00 p.m. EST

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a solid rate. Gains in employment, household spending, and business fixed investment have been solid, and the unemployment rate has stayed low. On a 12-month basis, both overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy have continued to run below 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation have increased in recent months but remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with further gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and labor market conditions will remain strong. Inflation on a 12‑month basis is expected to move up this year and to stabilize around the Committee's 2 percent objective over the medium term. Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced, but the Committee is monitoring inflation developments closely.

In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1-1/4 to 1‑1/2 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting strong labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation.

In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected inflation developments relative to its symmetric inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant further gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Thomas I. Barkin; Raphael W. Bostic; Lael Brainard; Loretta J. Mester; Jerome H. Powell; Randal K. Quarles; and John C. Williams.

The Fed - Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20180131a.htm

イエレン会見（日本時間4:30ごろから）

今回は無し 

コメント

FOMC声明については、市場予想どおりの金利据え置きとなりました。

特にサプライズはありません。

※過去のFOMCまとめはこちら

内容については、インフレ状況は予想を若干下回るも、労働市場動向は堅調で、あくまでも利上げ目線のようです。

   
グローバル的な状況を見ると、経済ボロボロで貨幣をジャブジャブ刷って刷って刷りまくり（＆戦争の気配）の欧州、日本と比較すると、相対的には、米国一人勝ち（圧勝）の様相です。 

ファンダメンタル分析的に考えれば、

・株安（利上げは株には悪材料）

・ドル高（金利上昇期待）

と考えるのが自然です。

少なくとも、ドル安になる材料ではないように思えます。

では、これを受けて現実のマーケットはどのように反応したのでしょうか。

↓のチャートを見る前に１分間想像してみてください。

・NYダウ の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ドル円 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ユーロドル の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ユーロ円 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ポンドドル の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ポンド円 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・原油 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・金 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

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15分足

以下のチャートでは14:00が日本時間04:00

米長期金利（米国債１０年物流通利回り）

   → http://fxtechnicalblog.fxtec.info/2006/12/saxo_1.html 

各国政策金利一覧