FOMC声明 日本時間 2017年9月21日（木）03:00発表

※前回のFOMC声明はこちら

Press Release

September 20, 2017

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement

For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in July indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising moderately so far this year. Job gains have remained solid in recent months, and the unemployment rate has stayed low. Household spending has been expanding at a moderate rate, and growth in business fixed investment has picked up in recent quarters. On a 12-month basis, overall inflation and the measure excluding food and energy prices have declined this year and are running below 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria have devastated many communities, inflicting severe hardship. Storm-related disruptions and rebuilding will affect economic activity in the near term, but past experience suggests that the storms are unlikely to materially alter the course of the national economy over the medium term. Consequently, the Committee continues to expect that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, and labor market conditions will strengthen somewhat further. Higher prices for gasoline and some other items in the aftermath of the hurricanes will likely boost inflation temporarily; apart from that effect, inflation on a 12-month basis is expected to remain somewhat below 2 percent in the near term but to stabilize around the Committee's 2 percent objective over the medium term. Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced, but the Committee is monitoring inflation developments closely.

In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1 to 1-1/4 percent.（1.00-1.25%に金利据え置き） The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting some further strengthening in labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation.

In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected inflation developments relative to its symmetric inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.

In October, the Committee will initiate the balance sheet normalization program described in the June 2017 Addendum to the Committee's Policy Normalization Principles and Plans.（量的緩和＝ドルジャブジャブを縮小：ドル高材料）

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Charles L. Evans; Stanley Fischer; Patrick Harker; Robert S. Kaplan; Neel Kashkari; and Jerome H. Powell.（反対無し）

The Fed - Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20170920a.htm

3:30頃から イエレン会見

「緩和政策が労働市場を支援。」
「バランスシートの縮小は緩やかかつ予測可能に。」
「第３四半期のＧＤＰはハリケーンの影響で鈍化見込む。」
「９月の雇用者数に影響が出る可能性も。」
「ハリケーンの被害にあった人の回復はしばらく時間がかかる。」
「インフレ鈍化は一時的要因。」
「低インフレは経済全体を反映していない。」
「インフレは目標に向かって上昇見込む。」
「インフレに対する我々の理解力は完全ではない。」

コメント

FOMC声明については、市場予想どおりの金利据え置き （1.00-1.25%）となりました。

特にサプライズはありません。

※過去のFOMCまとめはこちら

内容については、インフレ状況は予想を若干下回るも、労働市場動向は堅調で、あくまでも利上げ目線のようです。

また、バランスシート縮小を10月から開始、ということも明記されました。

これは量的緩和で吸収した株式等の資産の放出＆ドル回収となり、株安＆ドル高材料となるはずです。

グローバル的な状況を見ると、経済ボロボロで貨幣をジャブジャブ刷って刷って刷りまくり（＆戦争の気配）の欧州、日本と比較すると、相対的には、米国一人勝ち（圧勝）の様相です。

ファンダメンタル分析的に考えれば、

・株安（利上げは株には悪材料）

・ドル高（金利上昇期待）

と考えるのが自然です。

少なくとも、ドル安になる材料ではないように思えます。

これを受けてマーケットはどのように反応したのでしょうか。

↓のチャートを見る前に１分間想像してみてください。

・NYダウ の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ドル円 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ユーロドル の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ユーロ円 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ポンドドル の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・ポンド円 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・原油 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

・金 の値動き → 上昇？下落？

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5分足 以下のチャートでは14:00が日本時間03:00

純粋なドル高。

利上げは株には悪材料が常識だが、それを跳ね返して上昇に転じたのが興味深い。米経済の堅調さは本物ということ。

米長期金利（米国債１０年物流通利回り） 爆上げ！

→ http://fxtechnicalblog.fxtec.info/2006/12/saxo_1.html

各国政策金利一覧