日本時間　4/30　3:15発表

FRB: Press Release--FOMC statement--April 29, 2009

Release Date: March Release Date: April 29, 2009

For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March indicates that the economy has continued to contract, though the pace of contraction appears to be somewhat slower. Household spending has shown signs of stabilizing but remains constrained by ongoing job losses, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Weak sales prospects and difficulties in obtaining credit have led businesses to cut back on inventories, fixed investment, and staffing. Although the economic outlook has improved modestly since the March meeting, partly reflecting some easing of financial market conditions, economic activity is likely to remain weak for a time. Nonetheless, the Committee continues to anticipate that policy actions to stabilize financial markets and institutions, fiscal and monetary stimulus, and market forces will contribute to a gradual resumption of sustainable economic growth in a context of price stability.

In light of increasing economic slack here and abroad, the Committee expects that inflation will remain subdued. Moreover, the Committee sees some risk that inflation could persist for a time below rates that best foster economic growth and price stability in the longer term.

In these circumstances, the Federal Reserve will employ all available tools to promote economic recovery and to preserve price stability. The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and anticipates that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period. As previously announced, to provide support to mortgage lending and housing markets and to improve overall conditions in private credit markets, the Federal Reserve will purchase a total of up to $1.25 trillion of agency mortgage-backed securities and up to $200 billion of agency debt by the end of the year. In addition, the Federal Reserve will buy up to $300 billion of Treasury securities by autumn. The Committee will continue to evaluate the timing and overall amounts of its purchases of securities in light of the evolving economic outlook and conditions in financial markets. The Federal Reserve is facilitating the extension of credit to households and businesses and supporting the functioning of financial markets through a range of liquidity programs. The Committee will continue to carefully monitor the size and composition of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet in light of financial and economic developments.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Charles L. Evans; Donald L. Kohn; Jeffrey M. Lacker; Dennis P. Lockhart; Daniel K. Tarullo; Kevin M. Warsh; and Janet L. Yellen.

　　　

市場予想どおりの実質ゼロ金利据え置きでした。

何のサプライズもありません。

　　　

ただ、実質ゼロ金利ということで、

常識的、ファンダメンタル分析的に考えると、

株には好材料、

ドルには悪材料ですが、

現実のマーケットはどのように反応したのでしょうか。

　　　

値動きは以下のとおりです。

以下のチャートを見る前に１分間値動きを想像してみてください。

・NYダウ

・ドル円

・ユーロドル

・ユーロ円

・原油

・金

---

　　　

15分足　以下のチャートでは29日20:15が日本時間30日3:15

　　　

ドル円、ユーロドルは爆裂ドル高

　　　

何のサプライズも無いFOMCでしたが、

マーケットは

爆裂株高、

爆裂ドル高

で反応しました。

「織り込み済み」という言葉がいかに無意味か分かります。

　　

その後、クライスラー破産の情報が飛び交うも、

マーケットは反応無し。

　　　

マーケットは自分の都合の良い材料にしか反応しないのです。（これが「場味」）

ニュースを自分で解釈して、悪材料だ！好材料だ！と

一喜一憂して振り回されることの無いよう、ご注意ください。

　　　

さて、場味ですが、

ドルは短期的に強気地合いにあると思われます。

例の三尊シナリオ継続です。

100円ちょっと手前で叩き売りたいと思います。

　　　

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