FOMC声明 日本時間 2017年2月2日(木)04:00発表
Press Release
Release Date: February 1, 2017
For release at 2:00 p.m. EST
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has continued to expand at a moderate pace. Job gains remained solid and the unemployment rate stayed near its recent low. Household spending has continued to rise moderately while business fixed investment has remained soft. Measures of consumer and business sentiment have improved of late. Inflation increased in recent quarters but is still below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, labor market conditions will strengthen somewhat further, and inflation will rise to 2 percent over the medium term. Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced. The Committee continues to closely monitor inflation indicators and global economic and financial developments.
In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1/2 to 3/4 percent. (0.5~0.75%に金利据え置き) The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting some further strengthening in labor market conditions and a return to 2 percent inflation.
In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. In light of the current shortfall of inflation from 2 percent, the Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected progress toward its inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant only gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.
The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction, and it anticipates doing so until normalization of the level of the federal funds rate is well under way. This policy, by keeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Charles L. Evans; Stanley Fischer; Patrick Harker; Robert S. Kaplan; Neel Kashkari; Jerome H. Powell; and Daniel K. Tarullo.(全会一致)
FRB: Press Release--Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement--February 1, 2017
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20170201a.htm
イエレン会見 今回はナシ
FOMC声明については、
市場予想どおり、金利据え置き、となりました。
内容については、
インフレの低調さを挙げつつも、
労働市場の強さを再確認。
あくまでも利上げ目線のようです。
グローバル的な状況を見ると、
経済ボロボロで貨幣をジャブジャブ刷って刷って刷りまくり(&戦争の気配)の欧州、日本と比較すると、
相対的には、米国一人勝ちの様相です。
ファンダメンタル分析的に考えれば、
結局米国しかまともなとこないじゃん、となって
・株高
・ドル高(金利上昇期待)
と考えるのが自然です。
少なくとも、特にドル安になる材料ではないように思えます。
これを受けてマーケットはどのように反応したのでしょうか。
↓のチャートを見る前に1分間想像してみてください。
・NYダウ の値動き → 上昇?下落?
・ドル円 の値動き → 上昇?下落?
・ユーロドル の値動き → 上昇?下落?
・ユーロ円 の値動き → 上昇?下落?
・ポンドドル の値動き → 上昇?下落?
・ポンド円 の値動き → 上昇?下落?
・原油 の値動き → 上昇?下落?
・金 の値動き → 上昇?下落?
5分足 以下のチャートでは14:00が日本時間04:00
米長期金利(米国債10年物流通利回り) 金利下落
→ http://fxtechnicalblog.fxtec.info/2006/12/saxo_1.html
各国政策金利一覧 米国の一人勝ち