FOMC声明 日本時間 2016年9月22日(木) 03:00発表
Press Release
Release Date: September 21, 2016
For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in July indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and growth of economic activity has picked up from the modest pace seen in the first half of this year. Although the unemployment rate is little changed in recent months, job gains have been solid, on average. Household spending has been growing strongly but business fixed investment has remained soft. Inflation has continued to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance, in recent months.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and labor market conditions will strengthen somewhat further. Inflation is expected to remain low in the near term, in part because of earlier declines in energy prices, but to rise to 2 percent over the medium term as the transitory effects of past declines in energy and import prices dissipate and the labor market strengthens further. Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced. The Committee continues to closely monitor inflation indicators and global economic and financial developments.
Against this backdrop, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1/4 to 1/2 percent. (金利据え置き) The Committee judges that the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has strengthened but decided, for the time being, to wait for further evidence of continued progress toward its objectives. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting further improvement in labor market conditions and a return to 2 percent inflation.
In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. In light of the current shortfall of inflation from 2 percent, the Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected progress toward its inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant only gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.
The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction, and it anticipates doing so until normalization of the level of the federal funds rate is well under way. This policy, by keeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; James Bullard; Stanley Fischer; Jerome H. Powell; and Daniel K. Tarullo. Voting against the action were: Esther L. George, Loretta J. Mester, and Eric Rosengren, each of whom preferred at this meeting to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1/2 to 3/4 percent. (利上げ主張3名)
FRB: Press Release--Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement--September 21, 2016
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20160921a.htm
その後、日本時間3:30から イエレン会見
「今後の景気改善の継続を待ちたい。」
「短期的な経済リスクは概ね安定的。」
「今後2~3年で物価は目標の2%に届くと予想。」
「米経済は数年間に渡り緩やかに拡大。」
「労働市場は今後も引き締まり続ける見通し。」
「改善に自信がないことが利上げ見送りの理由ではない。」
「緩やかなペースでの利上げが適当。」
「金融政策に決まった道のりはない。」
「11月会合で利上げが正当かどうかを判断へ。」
「われわれは非常に苦労して互いの見解を理解した。」
「利上げのタイミング、様々な選択肢がある。」
「18万人の雇用増は非常に底堅い。」
「長期的には持続不可能。」
「GDP見通しは緩んだ。」
「GDP見通しは生産性の弱さ反映。」
「労働市場が改善しリスク増えなければ年内1度利上げに。」
FOMC声明については、
市場予想どおり、今回は金利据え置きとなりました。
内容については、
インフレの低調さをあげつつも、
労働市場は堅調で、あくまでも景気見通しは悪くない、という認識のようです。
また、今回は3名の委員が利上げを主張しました。
その後のイエレン会見では、
基本的にイケイケで、利上げ目線の姿勢が鮮明となりました。
今回金利は据え置きでしたが、利上げ秒読み前という状況です。
グローバル的な状況を見ると、
経済ボロボロで貨幣をジャブジャブ刷って刷って刷りまくり(&戦争の気配)の欧州、日本と比較すると、
相対的には、米国一人勝ちの様相です。
ファンダメンタル分析的に考えれば、
・株高(利上げ見送り)
・ドル高(金利上昇期待)
と考えるのが自然です。
少なくとも、ドル安になる材料ではないように思えます。
これを受けてマーケットはどのように反応したのでしょうか。
↓のチャートを見る前に1分間想像してみてください。
・NYダウ の値動き → 上昇?下落?
・ドル円 の値動き → 上昇?下落?
・ユーロドル の値動き → 上昇?下落?
・ユーロ円 の値動き → 上昇?下落?
・ポンドドル の値動き → 上昇?下落?
・ポンド円 の値動き → 上昇?下落?
・原油 の値動き → 上昇?下落?
・金 の値動き → 上昇?下落?
5分足 以下のチャートでは14:00が日本時間03:00
米長期金利(米国債10年物流通利回り) 金利爆下げ
→ http://fxtechnicalblog.fxtec.info/2006/12/saxo_1.html
各国政策金利一覧