FOMC声明 日本時間 2016年6月16日(木) 03:00発表
Press Release
Release Date: June 15, 2016
For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in April indicates that the pace of improvement in the labor market has slowed while growth in economic activity appears to have picked up. Although the unemployment rate has declined, job gains have diminished. Growth in household spending has strengthened. Since the beginning of the year, the housing sector has continued to improve and the drag from net exports appears to have lessened, but business fixed investment has been soft. Inflation has continued to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation declined; most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance, in recent months.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee currently expects that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and labor market indicators will strengthen. Inflation is expected to remain low in the near term, in part because of earlier declines in energy prices, but to rise to 2 percent over the medium term as the transitory effects of past declines in energy and import prices dissipate and the labor market strengthens further. The Committee continues to closely monitor inflation indicators and global economic and financial developments.
Against this backdrop, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1/4 to 1/2 percent. (0.25~0.50%金利据え置き) The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting further improvement in labor market conditions and a return to 2 percent inflation.
In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. In light of the current shortfall of inflation from 2 percent, the Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected progress toward its inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant only gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.
The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction, and it anticipates doing so until normalization of the level of the federal funds rate is well under way. This policy, by keeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; James Bullard; Stanley Fischer; Esther L. George; Loretta J. Mester; Jerome H. Powell; Eric Rosengren; and Daniel K. Tarullo.(全会一致。利上げ主張の委員は今回はナシ)
FRB: Press Release--Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement--June 15, 2016
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20160615a.htm
日本時間3:30ごろから、イエレン会見
「最近の指標はまちまち。」
「慎重なアプローチが適切。」
「一部経済の減速予期せず。」
「労働市場の改善ペースは直近で著しく減速した」
「賃金の伸びは加速の兆候。」
「失業率が改善の一方で、求職者が減少。」
「1、2カ月の統計に過剰反応するべきではない。」
「FOMCで英国民投票を討議。」
「この日の決定は英国民投票を考慮した。」
「英国民投票は世界経済と金融状況に打撃与えかねない。」
「世界経済に脆弱さ残る。」
「投資家のリスク志向は突如変わることがある。」
「経済への向かい風、しばらく続く可能性も。」
「金利調整の可能性はどの会合でもある。」
「雇用改善の継続を予想。」
「経済改善の基調は損なわれていない。」
FOMC声明については、
市場予想どおり、今回は金利据え置きとなりました。
内容については、本文中で成長減速のリスクを指摘しており、
利上げイケイケドンドンという感じは無く、慎重な姿勢が見られます。
また、前回までは利上げを主張していたEsther L. George委員ですが、
今回は金利据え置きに票を投じました。
全体的に見ると、利上げ姿勢が多少後退したような印象です。
その後のイエレン会見では、
経済見通しに慎重な姿勢を見せつつも、
雇用や経済基調は、あくまでも底堅いという、明るい見通しも持っていることを明らかにしました。
あくまでも、目線は利上げ方向という印象です。
グローバル的な状況を見ると、
経済ボロボロで貨幣をジャブジャブ刷って刷って刷りまくり(&戦争の気配)の欧州、日本と比較すると、
相対的には、米国一人勝ちの様相です。
ファンダメンタル分析的に考えれば、
FOMC声明で多少乱高下しつつも、
結局米国しかまともなとこないじゃん、となり、じわりとドル高になる
と考えるのが自然です。
少なくとも、ドル安になる材料ではないように思えます。
これを受けてマーケットはどのように反応したのでしょうか。
↓のチャートを見る前に1分間想像してみてください。
・NYダウ の値動き → 上昇?下落?
・ドル円 の値動き → 上昇?下落?
・ユーロドル の値動き → 上昇?下落?
・ユーロ円 の値動き → 上昇?下落?
・ポンドドル の値動き → 上昇?下落?
・ポンド円 の値動き → 上昇?下落?
・原油 の値動き → 上昇?下落?
・金 の値動き → 上昇?下落?
5分足 以下のチャートでは14:00が日本時間03:00
米長期金利(米国債10年物流通利回り) →金利爆下げ
→ http://fxtechnicalblog.fxtec.info/2006/12/saxo_1.html
各国政策金利一覧