FOMC声明 日本時間 2013/12/19 （木） 04:00ごろ発表
Release Date: December 18, 2013
For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in October indicates that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace. Labor market conditions have shown further improvement; the unemployment rate has declined but remains elevated. Household spending and business fixed investment advanced, while the recovery in the housing sector slowed somewhat in recent months. Fiscal policy is restraining economic growth, although the extent of restraint may be diminishing. Inflation has been running below the Committee's longer-run objective, but longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic growth will pick up from its recent pace and the unemployment rate will gradually decline toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee sees the risks to the outlook for the economy and the labor market as having become more nearly balanced. The Committee recognizes that inflation persistently below its 2 percent objective could pose risks to economic performance, and it is monitoring inflation developments carefully for evidence that inflation will move back toward its objective over the medium term.
Taking into account the extent of federal fiscal retrenchment since the inception of its current asset purchase program, the Committee sees the improvement in economic activity and labor market conditions over that period as consistent with growing underlying strength in the broader economy. In light of the cumulative progress toward maximum employment and the improvement in the outlook for labor market conditions, the Committee decided to modestly reduce the pace of its asset purchases. Beginning in January, the Committee will add to its holdings of agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $35 billion per month rather than $40 billion per month, and will add to its holdings of longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $40 billion per month rather than $45 billion per month. (QE3縮小！！850億ドル→750億ドルへ、毎月100億ドルの流動性供給縮小→ドルの希薄化ペース落とす→ドル高材料) The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. The Committee's sizable and still-increasing holdings of longer-term securities should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative, which in turn should promote a stronger economic recovery and help to ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with the Committee's dual mandate.
The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months and will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until the outlook for the labor market has improved substantially in a context of price stability. If incoming information broadly supports the Committee's expectation of ongoing improvement in labor market conditions and inflation moving back toward its longer-run objective, the Committee will likely reduce the pace of asset purchases in further measured steps at future meetings. However, asset purchases are not on a preset course, and the Committee's decisions about their pace will remain contingent on the Committee's outlook for the labor market and inflation as well as its assessment of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases.
To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends and the economic recovery strengthens. The Committee also reaffirmed its expectation that the current exceptionally low target range for the federal funds rate of 0 to 1/4 percent will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent, inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be no more than a half percentage point above the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored. （微妙に文言を変えてきました。） In determining how long to maintain a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy, the Committee will also consider other information, including additional measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. The Committee now anticipates, based on its assessment of these factors, that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate well past the time that the unemployment rate declines below 6-1/2 percent, especially if projected inflation continues to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal.（失業率が6.5％を下回っても、長期的な物価目標が2%に達しない場合は、利上げしないよ！当分ゼロ金利維持するよ！株式市場へのメッセージか。利上げは株では悪材料、利下げは好材料。QE3縮小とのバランスを取った形） When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; James Bullard; Charles L. Evans; Esther L. George; Jerome H. Powell; Jeremy C. Stein; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against the action was Eric S. Rosengren, who believes that, with the unemployment rate still elevated and the inflation rate well below the target, changes in the purchase program are premature until incoming data more clearly indicate that economic growth is likely to be sustained above its potential rate.
FRB: Press Release--Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement--December 18, 2013
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20131218a.htm
4:30ごろから バーナンキ会見
「政策措置は経済が進展しているとの見方を反映、さらなる進展必要。最近の指標により、労働市場の伸びが継続する。」
「財政面での向かい風は弱まる見通し。」
「回復はまだ完全ではない。」
「経済成長に伴いインフレ率は2％に戻る見通し。」
「かなり緩和的な金融政策は依然として適切。」（金利低→ドル安方向の材料）
「フォワードガイダンスの強化、失業率が6.5％に低下した時点で労働市場に緩みあるとの見通しを反映。」
「インフレ見通しにもかかわらず、金融政策を緩和的に維持する理由としては、緩和縮小プロセス、入念かつ指標次第。指標次第だが状況進展すれば毎回の会合で縮小可能、年末までかかる。」（QE3縮小→ドル高材料、株安材料）
「景気次第で買い入れの停止もしくは拡大が可能。」
「指標が失望誘う内容なら、1回もしくは2回の会合で見送ること可能。」
「今回の決定めぐりイエレン副議長と緊密に協議、イエレン氏はFRBの措置を全面的に支持。」
「インフレのファンダメンタルズ、段階的に上昇する見通しを示唆。」
「インフレが過度に低水準にとどまらないよう確実にすることにコミット、あらゆる必要な措置講じる。」
「取得資産の総額、当初予想を上回っている。」
「非常に短期的には変更予想せず（数値基準について）。」
「様々な方法でガイダンス強化が可能、一段の強化排除せず。」
「（数値基準について）資産買い入れ縮小する間もバランスシートは長期間大規模となる見通し。」
FRB議長交代が近づく中、
今回は色々と変更点がありました。
まず、QE3実施規模縮小の断行。
毎月850億ドル→750億ドルへ、
毎月100億ドル、約１兆円の流動性供給低下です。
ドルをジャブジャブにする（＝希薄化）ペースを緩める、ということで、
ファンダメンタル的にはドル高材料です。
逆に、株式市場的には株安材料です。
金利については、微妙に文言を変えてきましたが、
金利自体は変更無し。
注目すべき点としては、
失業率が6.5％を下回って改善しても、長期的な物価目標が2%に達しない場合は、利上げしない、というような内容の一文が加筆されました。
当分ゼロ金利維持するから安心してね！金利は上げないよ！という株式市場（＆米国債市場）へのメッセージと思われます。
QE3縮小で株暴落＆景気減速懸念が出ることとのバランスを取った形です。
ファンダメンタル分析的に考えれば、
・QE3縮小→ドル高、株安
・低金利堅持アピール→ドル安、株高
であり、
単純にどちらか一方通行になるような、単純な材料ではありません。
これを受けてマーケットはどのように反応したのでしょうか。
↓のチャートを見る前に１分間想像してみてください。
・NYダウ の値動き → 上昇？下落？
・ドル円 の値動き → 上昇？下落？
・ユーロドル の値動き → 上昇？下落？
・ユーロ円 の値動き → 上昇？下落？
・ポンドドル の値動き → 上昇？下落？
・ポンド円 の値動き → 上昇？下落？
・原油 の値動き → 上昇？下落？
・金 の値動き → 上昇？下落？
5分足 以下のチャートでは21:00が日本時間04:00
バブル全力フル回転。NYダウはなぜ迷い無く爆騰したのか。「強気相場は楽観の中で成熟」の段階に入った模様。
●ウォール街の格言
強気相場は絶望の中で生まれ、（ダウ理論第一段階）
懐疑の中で育ち、（ダウ理論第二段階）
楽観の中で成熟し、（ダウ理論第三段階、バブル形成） ←今ココ
幸福感の中で死ぬ。（バブル崩壊）
Bull markets are born in despair,
Rise on scepticism,
Mature in optimism,
and die in euphoria.
ドル円1分足
FOMC声明では方向感出なかったが、バーナンキ会見から爆騰開始していることが分かる。
米長期金利（米国債１０年物流通利回り）は一瞬乱高下するも3%手前で安定化
→ http://fxtechnicalblog.fxtec.info/2006/12/saxo_1.html
非常に面白い反応です。
まず、ドルは流動性縮小（＆その継続期待）で爆上げ。
そして心配の株は、ゼロ金利堅持アピール＆景気先行き安心感で爆騰です。
長期金利も一瞬乱高下しましたが、3%手前で安定化。
全部いいとこ取りの反応で、
完全にFRBの思惑通り、シナリオ通りという感じです。
やっぱり、バーナンキの手腕って凄いな～と思います。
本当に、大金融危機を乗り越えてしまいました。
偉大なFRB議長として、歴史に名を残すことになるでしょう。
政策金利一覧
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