日本時間2012/3/14 3:15ごろ発表
Press Release
Release Date: March 13, 2012
For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January suggests that the economy has been expanding moderately. Labor market conditions have improved further; the unemployment rate has declined notably in recent months but remains elevated. Household spending and business fixed investment have continued to advance. The housing sector remains depressed. Inflation has been subdued in recent months, although prices of crude oil and gasoline have increased lately. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects moderate economic growth over coming quarters and consequently anticipates that the unemployment rate will decline gradually toward levels that the Committee judges to be consistent with its dual mandate. Strains in global financial markets have eased, though they continue to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook. The recent increase in oil and gasoline prices will push up inflation temporarily, but the Committee anticipates that subsequently inflation will run at or below the rate that it judges most consistent with its dual mandate.
To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, the Committee expects to maintain a highly accommodative stance for monetary policy. In particular, the Committee decided today to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that economic conditions--including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run--are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through late 2014.
The Committee also decided to continue its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of securities as announced in September. The Committee is maintaining its existing policies of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. The Committee will regularly review the size and composition of its securities holdings and is prepared to adjust those holdings as appropriate to promote a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Dennis P. Lockhart; Sandra Pianalto; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Daniel K. Tarullo; John C. Williams; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against the action was Jeffrey M. Lacker, who does not anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate through late 2014.
FRB: Press Release--Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement--March 13, 2012
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20120313a.htm
市場予想どおりの実質ゼロ金利据え置きでした。
そして、前回と同様、例の2014年終盤まで異例の低金利を続けることが明記されました。
そしてこれも前回と同様、反対票を投じたのは１名で、理由は、
2014年云々の記載に反対という理由でした。
常識的、ファンダメンタル分析的に考えると、
思いっきり何のサプライズもなく、
・株 「材料織り込み済み」でほとんど動かず！
・ドル 「材料織り込み済み」でほとんど動かず！
となるのが自然に思えます。
では、この材料を受けて、机上の空論ならぬ現実のマーケットはどのように動いたのでしょうか？
↓のチャートを見る前に１分間想像してみてください。
・NYダウ の値動き → 上昇？下落？
・ドル円 の値動き → 上昇？下落？
・ユーロドル の値動き → 上昇？下落？
・ユーロ円 の値動き → 上昇？下落？
・ポンドドル の値動き → 上昇？下落？
・ポンド円 の値動き → 上昇？下落？
・原油 の値動き → 上昇？下落？
・金 の値動き → 上昇？下落？
５分足 以下のチャートでは20:15が日本時間3：15
FOMC声明の内容は前回とほとんど同じで、
猛烈なドル高になるような材料では全くないわけですが、
マーケットの反応は猛烈なドル高となりました。
同じ材料なのに、
前回は猛烈なドル安、
今回は猛烈なドル高。
「材料織り込み済み」という言葉がいかに無意味か、
ファンダメンタル分析というのは後講釈以外にほとんど役に立たないということが
よくわかります。
さて、場味の分析ですが、
特に猛烈なドル高になるような材料ではなかったのに
マーケットはドル高で反応しました。
これがトレンドだ！というマーケットの叫びであります。
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