2009/08/13 (木) 3:15 FRB政策金利
結果 0.00-0.25% 予想通り金利据え置き
予想 0.00-0.25%
現行 0.00-0.25%
FOMC声明 日本時間 8/13 3:15発表
FRB: Press Release--FOMC statement--August 12, 2009
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20090812a.htm
Release Date: August 12, 2009
For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June suggests that economic activity is leveling out. Conditions in financial markets have improved further in recent weeks. Household spending has continued to show signs of stabilizing but remains constrained by ongoing job losses, sluggish income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Businesses are still cutting back on fixed investment and staffing but are making progress in bringing inventory stocks into better alignment with sales. Although economic activity is likely to remain weak for a time, the Committee continues to anticipate that policy actions to stabilize financial markets and institutions, fiscal and monetary stimulus, and market forces will contribute to a gradual resumption of sustainable economic growth in a context of price stability.
The prices of energy and other commodities have risen of late. However, substantial resource slack is likely to dampen cost pressures, and the Committee expects that inflation will remain subdued for some time.
In these circumstances, the Federal Reserve will employ all available tools to promote economic recovery and to preserve price stability. The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period. As previously announced, to provide support to mortgage lending and housing markets and to improve overall conditions in private credit markets, the Federal Reserve will purchase a total of up to $1.25 trillion of agency mortgage-backed securities and up to $200 billion of agency debt by the end of the year. In addition, the Federal Reserve is in the process of buying $300 billion of Treasury securities. To promote a smooth transition in markets as these purchases of Treasury securities are completed, the Committee has decided to gradually slow the pace of these transactions and anticipates that the full amount will be purchased by the end of October. The Committee will continue to evaluate the timing and overall amounts of its purchases of securities in light of the evolving economic outlook and conditions in financial markets. The Federal Reserve is monitoring the size and composition of its balance sheet and will make adjustments to its credit and liquidity programs as warranted.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Charles L. Evans; Donald L. Kohn; Jeffrey M. Lacker; Dennis P. Lockhart; Daniel K. Tarullo; Kevin M. Warsh; and Janet L. Yellen.
市場予想どおりの実質ゼロ金利据え置きでした。
声明の方は、金融市場の改善について明確に言及している点、
緊急対策である国債買い入れのペースを緩めていく方針である（すなわち正常化）と明言している点
などから、
どちらかというと強気、楽観的な方向の内容でした。
FRB強気ということは、金利引き上げ方向ということになりますが、
となると、
株には悪材料、
ドルには好材料
となるのが常識的、ファンダメンタル分析的な反応となります。
では、机上の空論ならぬ、現実のマーケットはどのように反応したのでしょうか。
値動きは以下のとおりです。
以下のチャートを見る前に１分間値動きを想像してみてください。
・NYダウ
・ドル円
・ユーロドル
・ユーロ円
・原油
・金
5分足 以下のチャートでは12日20:15が日本時間13日3:15
15分足
マーケットは瞬間的に、
株安
ドル高
で反応しました。
教科書的な反応です。
しかし、わずか１０分ほどでその勢いは失われ、
あっという間にFOMC前の価格水準まで押し戻されました。
結局は、いわゆる「行ってこい」の展開となりました。
何がしたかったのかよく分からない乱高下となりましたが、
要は、売り買いの力が拮抗しているということです。
さて、場味ですが、
上記のとおり、売り買い拮抗の保合、と思われます。
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